Oklahoma @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

6-5 · Power #28

final

Final

LSU

7-4 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -4.5

✓ LSU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 24–28 LSU

✓ LSU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -6

CloseLSU -4.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -6

1.5 → OU

CloseLSU -4.5

1.5 pts toward Oklahoma

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -6 · closed LSU -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward OUmodel LSU -5

model LSU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 51% (136 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (137 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -6

CloseLSU -4.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 4.5-point home favorite against OU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 37–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 4.1; 54 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	USC vs UTAH 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-3	26–42	L	O52.75
Very close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	34–17	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU LWWLW	6-5	55%	2-1	3-3
LSU WLLLL	3-7	30%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: OU away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU OUOOU	5-6	45%	6-5
LSU UOUUU	3-7	30%	7-4

Went over in Q3. Of 337 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
LSU	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+17.8 →+11.3▼ 6.5#21

LSU+17.5 →+13.7▼ 3.8#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

LSU

#116

Offense

LSU better ▶

#48

#14

Defense

◀ OU better

#83

+0.1 #60

Turnovers

◀ OU better

−0.2 #85

68 plays #54

Pace

LSU faster ▶

71 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	OU off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #95	24.4 #64	LSU
Yards / play	4.78 #129	5.97 #96	LSU
PPA / play	−0.02 #125	+0.17 #101	LSU
Success rate	39% #114	42% #69	LSU

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	LSU off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #63	20.2 #24	OU
Yards / play	6.12 #48	4.75 #15	OU
PPA / play	+0.18 #42	−0.04 #8	OU
Success rate	45% #39	36% #7	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OU scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	5.3 #78	8.6 #61	13.9 #74	3.9 #116	7.2 #69	11.1 #105
LSU allowed	5.4 #79	7.1 #60	12.5 #66	4.5 #36	7.1 #77	11.6 #55

LSU scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	6.1 #61	10.0 #37	16.1 #39	5.6 #75	6.4 #88	12.0 #88
OU allowed	4.6 #57	6.4 #42	11.0 #43	3.8 #22	5.4 #38	9.2 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.