Alabama @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F17 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Alabama

8-2 · Power #7

final

Final

Oklahoma

5-5 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -14.5

✓ OU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 30–16 OU

✗ ALA (84%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -14

CloseALA -14.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -14

0.5 → ALA

CloseALA -14.5

0.5 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -14 · closed ALA -14.5 · moved 0.5 toward ALAmodel ALA -12.5

model ALA -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–16.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 49% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -14

CloseALA -14.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 14.5-point road favorite at OU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OU won 24–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 14.4; 53.6 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE @ WIS 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	16–13	L	U49.5
Very close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Very close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Very close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-16.5	29–13	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA LLWWW	6-4	60%	2-2	5-4
OU LLWWL	5-5	50%	3-3	2-3

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; OU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OUUUO	6-4	60%	8-2
OU UOUOO	5-5	50%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
OU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.2 →+23.4▲ 3.2#4

OU+17.8 →+9.3▼ 8.5#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ALA

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

◀ ALA better

#118

#13

Defense

Even

#20

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

−0.1 #80

64 plays #98

Pace

OU faster ▶

69 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #5	21.9 #38	ALA
Yards / play	6.82 #9	4.80 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #13	−0.02 #13	Even
Success rate	47% #26	36% #8	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	OU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #94	16.9 #10	ALA
Yards / play	4.74 #129	4.71 #12	ALA
PPA / play	−0.04 #129	−0.05 #9	ALA
Success rate	38% #121	37% #22	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	10.1 #6	10.6 #30	20.7 #13	7.6 #36	11.2 #4	18.8 #5
OU allowed	4.8 #59	7.0 #56	11.8 #57	4.2 #31	5.9 #55	10.1 #32

OU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	5.8 #69	8.5 #61	14.3 #67	2.9 #127	7.9 #44	10.8 #109
ALA allowed	2.2 #9	4.2 #9	6.4 #5	5.0 #48	5.5 #42	10.5 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.