Missouri @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 4:15 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

7-3 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

2-8 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

MIZ -9.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 34–24 MSST

✓ MIZ (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -8

CloseMIZ -9.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -8

1.5 → MIZ

CloseMIZ -9.5

1.5 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -8 · closed MIZ -9.5 · moved 1.5 toward MIZmodel MIZ -10.5

model MIZ -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 49% (56 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (107 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -8

CloseMIZ -9.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 9.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 39–20; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 9.5; 60.6 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ WAKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	46–36	W	O55
Very close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	30–16	W	U53
Close	PSU @ MD 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-10	31–14	W	U56.5
Close	KU @ CIN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	49–16	W	O59.25
Close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-8	34–31	L	O55.5
Close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-14	24–31	L	U58
Close	TA&M @ MIZ 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-11.5	35–14	W	U59.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WLLWW	5-5	50%	2-2	3-3
MSST WWLWW	6-3	67%	3-2	4-2

Venue/role: MIZ away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ UUUOO	4-6	40%	7-3
MSST OOOOU	6-3	67%	2-8

Went over in Q4. Of 308 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
MSST	2-8 20%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+14.2 →+9.3▼ 4.9#27

MSST+1.2 →−2.6▼ 3.8#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MIZ

Longer bar = better

MSST

#77

Offense

Even

#79

#32

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#127

+0.4 #37

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

−0.2 #84

71 plays #18

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #63	34.4 #120	MIZ
Yards / play	5.41 #98	6.46 #120	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.28 #132	MIZ
Success rate	43% #69	52% #136	MIZ

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	MSST off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #76	20.0 #26	MIZ
Yards / play	5.72 #70	5.34 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #64	+0.02 #25	MIZ
Success rate	40% #105	37% #21	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	6.4 #50	5.8 #121	12.2 #92	7.8 #32	7.2 #63	15.0 #48
MSST allowed	8.2 #121	13.1 #131	21.3 #130	6.1 #80	7.0 #74	13.1 #77

MSST scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	3.8 #111	8.8 #58	12.6 #88	7.8 #32	7.2 #63	15.0 #48
MIZ allowed	3.4 #23	6.6 #49	10.0 #30	4.5 #41	4.8 #26	9.3 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.