Massachusetts @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:45 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Georgia

Weather at kickoff58°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

2-8 · Power #125

final

Final

Georgia

8-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -42.5

✓ MASS W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 3–46 UGA

✓ UGA (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -43.5

CloseUGA -42.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -43.5

1 → MASS

CloseUGA -42.5

1 pt toward Massachusetts

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -43.5 · closed UGA -42.5 · moved 1 toward MASSmodel UGA -45.5

model UGA -45.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (115 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -43.5

CloseUGA -42.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 42.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 59–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 44.5 against an average line of 39; 52.5 points a game (usually 57.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs USM 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-45	63–14	W	O57.75
Close	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5
Close	PSU vs MASS 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-42	63–0	W	O55
Close	FLA vs VAN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-39	42–0	W	U60
Loose	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & rest	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Loose	NCST vs CONN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-38.5	41–10	L	O47.75
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Loose	CLEM vs CONN 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-40.5	44–7	L	O50.5
Loose	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LLWLW	4-6	40%	2-3	3-4
UGA LWLLW	3-7	30%	1-3	2-7

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OUUOO	5-5	50%	2-8
UGA OUOUO	4-6	40%	8-2

Went over in Q3. Of 322 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−12.1 →−16.9▼ 4.8#126

UGA+24.2 →+22.0▼ 2.2#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MASS

Longer bar = better

UGA

#108

Offense

UGA better ▶

#45

#110

Defense

UGA better ▶

#22

0.0 #67

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

−0.2 #85

68 plays #56

Pace

Even

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	MASS off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #119	18.3 #16	UGA
Yards / play	5.01 #121	4.83 #22	UGA
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	+0.03 #31	UGA
Success rate	40% #102	37% #17	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #46	32.0 #113	UGA
Yards / play	6.16 #42	6.01 #106	UGA
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.19 #110	UGA
Success rate	45% #37	45% #109	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.5 #95	6.9 #100	11.4 #103	1.7 #132	7.0 #71	8.7 #123
UGA allowed	5.0 #61	4.5 #12	9.5 #26	5.1 #55	3.7 #7	8.8 #17

UGA scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	4.8 #87	8.6 #57	13.4 #75	8.4 #21	8.8 #22	17.2 #14
MASS allowed	4.2 #49	8.9 #93	13.1 #76	9.6 #128	8.3 #109	17.9 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.