Army vs Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff43°F11 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Army

9-0 · Power #52

final

Final

Notre Dame

9-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -14.5

✓ ND W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 14–29 ND

✓ ND (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -17

CloseND -14.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -17

2.5 → ARMY

CloseND -14.5

2.5 pts toward Army

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -17 · closed ND -14.5 · moved 2.5 toward ARMYmodel ND -17.5

model ND -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (90 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -17

CloseND -14.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like ND as a 14.5-point neutral-site favorite against ARMY, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 49–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 4 similar games. 63 points went over 44.5, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 22.5 against an average line of 14.8; 46.5 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ND vs NAVY 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation	-14	51–14	W	O50.5
Loose	TA&M vs COLO 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar team ratings	-17	10–7	L	U50
Loose	UGA vs FLA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-14	43–20	W	O50
Loose	UGA vs FLA 2021 · Week 9 · loose	-14	34–7	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ARMY WWLLW	7-2	78%	—	1-0
ND WWWWL	7-3	70%	2-0	6-3

Venue/role: ARMY neutral, as underdog; ND neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY OUOUU	5-4	56%	9-0
ND OUOOU	5-5	50%	9-1

Went over in Q3. Of 256 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMY	10-0 100%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%
ND	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−16.8 →+4.5▲ 21.3#50

ND+18.9 →+20.5▲ 1.6#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ARMY

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ ARMY better

#24

#25

Defense

ND better ▶

+1.2 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.5 #2

62 plays #122

Pace

ND faster ▶

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Even matchup

	ARMY off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #21	11.4 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.81 #10	4.32 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #2	−0.19 #1	Even
Success rate	56% #1	35% #4	Even

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #10	10.3 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #26	4.71 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	−0.05 #10	Even
Success rate	45% #39	42% #74	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	8.8 #15	10.0 #40	18.8 #23	9.1 #15	7.3 #55	16.4 #27
ND allowed	3.7 #30	2.3 #2	6.0 #4	2.1 #3	3.3 #5	5.4 #3

ND scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.0 #25	12.8 #6	20.8 #11	8.9 #17	8.3 #39	17.2 #17
ARMY allowed	2.2 #10	1.1 #1	3.3 #1	2.2 #4	4.8 #25	7.0 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.