East Carolina @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

6-4 · Power #92

▲ winner

Final

North Texas

5-5 · Power #94

final

Closing spread

UNT -2.5

✓ ECU W

Total

73.5

▼ Under · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 31–34 UNT

✗ UNT (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -2.5

CloseUNT -2.5

Total72.5 → 73.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -2.5

no move

CloseUNT -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open72.5

▲ 1

Close73.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -2.5 · unchangedmodel UNT -5

model UNT -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (194 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -2.5

CloseUNT -2.5

Total72.5 → 73.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 2.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 40–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 68 points stayed under 73.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 3.3; 85.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNT vs UAB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	45–42	W	O73
Very close	WKU vs UTSA 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	46–52	L	O71.25
Very close	ARIZ vs ASU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	38–35	L	O66.5
Close	KENT vs NIU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	52–47	W	O72
Close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & rest	-4	42–21	W	U65
Close	CMU vs KENT 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	54–30	W	O76.5
Close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	51–31	W	O66
Close	GAST vs GASO 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	41–33	W	O66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LWWWL	6-4	60%	2-3	2-1
UNT LWLLL	4-5	44%	2-3	2-2

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU OOOOO	6-4	60%	6-4
UNT OOOUO	7-2	78%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 45% of games with totals 69.5–77.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UNT	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−7.2 →−6.6▲ 0.6#97

UNT−6.3 →−5.2▲ 1.1#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ECU

Longer bar = better

UNT

#51

Offense

UNT better ▶

#36

#53

Defense

◀ ECU better

#116

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #114

68 plays #55

Pace

UNT faster ▶

72 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ECU offense

	ECU off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #34	35.7 #125	ECU
Yards / play	6.32 #36	6.22 #113	ECU
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	+0.21 #113	ECU
Success rate	43% #77	45% #112	ECU

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #16	27.2 #84	UNT
Yards / play	6.94 #8	5.24 #46	UNT
PPA / play	+0.18 #42	+0.08 #56	Even
Success rate	43% #76	38% #27	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	9.7 #10	6.9 #100	16.6 #37	9.6 #13	6.8 #71	16.4 #29
UNT allowed	9.6 #131	13.2 #131	22.8 #133	4.8 #47	8.1 #107	12.9 #76

UNT scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	7.6 #34	8.5 #61	16.1 #45	11.4 #3	8.1 #44	19.5 #6
ECU allowed	5.1 #67	9.3 #99	14.4 #90	5.9 #75	6.9 #74	12.8 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.