Tulsa @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

3-7 · Power #131

final

Final

South Florida

5-5 · Power #91

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -13.5

✓ USF W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 93 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 21–36 USF

✓ USF (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -17

CloseUSF -13.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -17

3.5 → TLSA

CloseUSF -13.5

3.5 pts toward Tulsa

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -17 · closed USF -13.5 · moved 3.5 toward TLSAmodel USF -18.5

model USF -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 45% (78 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 64% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -17

CloseUSF -13.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 13.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 9, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 63–30; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 93 points went over 60.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 14.7; 56.7 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	KENT vs AKR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.75	33–27	L	U65
Close	GAST vs ULM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	28–31	L	U59.5
Close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-17	17–13	L	U62
Close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Close	BUFF vs AKR 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-12	23–22	L	U55
Close	CCU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-12	38–26	P	O59.75
Close	SJSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-15.25	27–14	L	U58
Close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25
Close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LLWLW	4-6	40%	2-3	4-5
USF LLWLW	3-5	38%	0-4	1-1

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA OUOOO	6-4	60%	3-7
USF UOOUO	4-4	50%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 170 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
USF	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TLSA 3–4 USF USF leads · 7 games since 2014 · USF has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−9.9 →−19.8▼ 9.9#130

USF−4.4 →−5.6▼ 1.2#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TLSA

Longer bar = better

USF

#111

Offense

USF better ▶

#92

#108

Defense

USF better ▶

#77

−0.2 #82

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+0.4 #41

73 plays #11

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

70 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	TLSA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #92	28.3 #93	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #108	5.82 #87	USF
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	+0.13 #82	USF
Success rate	35% #132	39% #44	USF

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #60	38.4 #131	USF
Yards / play	5.51 #87	6.70 #128	USF
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	+0.24 #120	Even
Success rate	38% #121	41% #54	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.4 #121	7.5 #83	10.9 #107	6.2 #63	8.0 #46	14.2 #56
USF allowed	9.4 #130	6.5 #47	15.9 #107	3.8 #26	8.6 #110	12.4 #70

USF scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	4.7 #88	7.1 #94	11.8 #98	10.9 #4	5.9 #100	16.8 #22
TLSA allowed	8.0 #118	13.5 #132	21.5 #131	10.1 #131	6.8 #72	16.9 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.