Army @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Army

8-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Final

North Texas

5-3 · Power #94

final

Closing spread

ARMY -6.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 36–30 UNT

✓ ARMY (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -5.5

CloseARMY -6.5

Total63.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -5.5

1 → ARMY

CloseARMY -6.5

1 pt toward Army

Total

Open63.5

▲ 3

Close66.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -5.5 · closed ARMY -6.5 · moved 1 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -4

model ARMY -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 57% (97 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (86 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -5.5

CloseARMY -6.5

Total63.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 6.5-point road favorite at UNT, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 14–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 6.7; 66.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TULN @ UNT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	45–37	W	O70.5
Close	TCU @ KU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	38–31	P	U70.25
Close	UNLV @ ORST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	33–25	W	U61.5
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	35–17	W	U67.5
Close	USA @ GASO 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	38–31	W	O60.5
Close	MEM @ UNT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	45–42	L	O69.5
Loose	CCU @ APP 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	U60.75
Loose	MD @ ILL 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread	-7	20–17	L	U61.5
Loose	JMU @ GASO 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & total	-13	38–45	L	O67.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY WWWLL	6-2	75%	3-0	5-2
UNT WWLWL	4-3	57%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: ARMY away, as favorite; UNT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY OOUOU	5-3	63%	8-0
UNT OOOOO	6-1	86%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 57 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 36% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMY	10-0 100%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%
UNT	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−16.8 →+3.7▲ 20.5#54

UNT−6.3 →−3.0▲ 3.3#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ARMY

Longer bar = better

UNT

Offense

◀ ARMY better

#28

#21

Defense

◀ ARMY better

#111

+1.4 #5

Turnovers

◀ ARMY better

−0.6 #111

61 plays #123

Pace

UNT faster ▶

75 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	37.9 #14	36.9 #130	ARMY
Yards / play	7.13 #6	6.21 #113	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.47 #1	+0.22 #115	ARMY
Success rate	56% #2	43% #86	ARMY

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #6	11.3 #1	Even
Yards / play	7.01 #8	4.66 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #22	−0.03 #12	Even
Success rate	43% #75	41% #62	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	9.0 #22	11.3 #19	20.3 #14	10.3 #11	7.4 #59	17.6 #18
UNT allowed	9.4 #130	14.9 #132	24.3 #133	5.6 #66	7.0 #84	12.6 #76

UNT scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	9.1 #18	9.8 #41	18.9 #22	12.6 #1	9.3 #21	21.9 #3
ARMY allowed	2.1 #10	1.3 #1	3.4 #1	2.5 #7	5.4 #45	7.9 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.