Temple @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F15 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Temple

2-6 · Power #127

final

Final

Tulane

7-2 · Power #40

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -25.5

✓ TULN W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

TEM 11–37 TULN

✓ TULN (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -27

CloseTULN -25.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -27

1.5 → TEM

CloseTULN -25.5

1.5 pts toward Temple

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -27 · closed TULN -25.5 · moved 1.5 toward TEMmodel TULN -31.5

model TULN -31.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 43% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (94 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -27

CloseTULN -25.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 25.5-point home favorite against TEM, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 52–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.1 against an average line of 24.6; 49.7 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs TEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-23.5	70–13	W	O46.5
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-24	32–15	L	U54
Close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Close	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-25	44–6	W	O47.5
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-24	34–7	W	U51
Close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Close	MICH vs NIU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar total	-27.5	63–10	W	O55
Close	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEM WLWWL	4-4	50%	1-3	3-4
TULN WWLWW	7-2	78%	3-1	6-1

Venue/role: TEM away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEM OOOUO	5-3	63%	2-6
TULN UOUOU	5-4	56%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 339 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEM	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TULN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEM−13.8 →−17.2▼ 3.4#123

TULN+1.3 →+8.8▲ 7.5#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TEM

Longer bar = better

TULN

#125

Offense

TULN better ▶

#27

#100

Defense

TULN better ▶

#32

−1.4 #135

Turnovers

TULN better ▶

+1.4 #3

66 plays #79

Pace

Even

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEM has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	TEM off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #120	20.1 #27	TULN
Yards / play	4.84 #128	5.28 #48	TULN
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	−0.02 #14	TULN
Success rate	35% #133	39% #37	TULN

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #8	35.4 #125	TULN
Yards / play	6.42 #32	5.87 #92	TULN
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	+0.17 #104	TULN
Success rate	45% #56	42% #78	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TEM scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	2.5 #129	6.9 #97	9.4 #120	4.5 #101	7.0 #69	11.5 #96
TULN allowed	2.9 #16	6.4 #43	9.3 #23	4.3 #37	6.4 #74	10.8 #44

TULN scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.3 #28	12.0 #9	20.3 #13	9.6 #13	9.9 #11	19.4 #6
TEM allowed	7.9 #116	10.8 #120	18.6 #124	10.6 #134	6.1 #66	16.8 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.