Kentucky @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

4-6 · Power #50

final

Final

Texas

9-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -18.5

✓ UK W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 13–32 TEX

✓ TEX (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -20.5

CloseTEX -18.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -20.5

2 → UK

CloseTEX -18.5

2 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -20.5 · closed TEX -18.5 · moved 2 toward UKmodel TEX -23.5

model TEX -23.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 53% (62 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (89 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -20.5

CloseTEX -18.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as an 18.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 31–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18.3 against an average line of 20.6; 51.1 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-21	27–25	L	O50
Very close	ND vs UVA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	35–14	L	U51
Very close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	MISS vs OU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-19.5	26–14	L	U50
Close	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5
Close	UGA vs AUB 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	31–13	L	U50
Close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	31–10	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LLLWW	6-4	60%	2-1	3-0
TEX WLLWL	6-4	60%	4-2	6-4

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UOUOU	3-7	30%	4-6
TEX UUUOU	4-6	40%	9-1

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
TEX	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.8 →+5.1▼ 0.7#46

TEX+19.1 →+23.6▲ 4.5#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

TEX

#103

Offense

TEX better ▶

#27

#65

Defense

TEX better ▶

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.7 #25

64 plays #98

Pace

TEX faster ▶

70 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	UK off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #113	11.9 #4	TEX
Yards / play	5.30 #107	3.95 #1	TEX
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	−0.14 #2	TEX
Success rate	43% #78	37% #25	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #13	19.3 #22	Even
Yards / play	6.46 #27	5.67 #76	TEX
PPA / play	+0.23 #25	+0.09 #63	TEX
Success rate	45% #41	44% #97	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UK scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	4.4 #97	7.0 #96	11.4 #103	3.7 #118	5.8 #103	9.4 #119
TEX allowed	1.7 #5	3.8 #7	5.5 #3	2.7 #8	3.7 #8	6.4 #6

TEX scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	9.1 #14	12.1 #12	21.2 #7	8.2 #25	7.6 #49	15.8 #33
UK allowed	2.7 #14	6.0 #36	8.7 #17	6.8 #98	6.0 #57	12.8 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.