Clemson @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:35 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

6-2 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

5-4 · Power #38

final

Closing spread

CLEM -6.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 30–24 VT

✓ CLEM (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -6.5

CloseCLEM -6.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -6.5

no move

CloseCLEM -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -6.5 · unchangedmodel CLEM -4

model CLEM -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 57% (98 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -6.5

CloseCLEM -6.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 6.5-point road favorite at VT, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 24–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 5.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Very close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	45–18	W	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM WLWLL	4-4	50%	1-1	4-3
VT WWWWL	5-4	56%	2-2	1-0

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; VT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UUUOU	3-5	38%	6-2
VT OUOUO	6-3	67%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
VT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLEM 23–11 VT (1 tied) CLEM leads · 35 games since 1906 · CLEM has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+12.9 →+15.1▲ 2.2#13

VT+4.6 →+8.3▲ 3.7#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CLEM

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

◀ CLEM better

#63

#62

Defense

VT better ▶

#47

+1.1 #9

Turnovers

◀ CLEM better

+0.6 #35

74 plays #9

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	39.4 #9	22.3 #50	CLEM
Yards / play	6.60 #22	5.31 #51	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.37 #7	+0.04 #36	CLEM
Success rate	50% #9	40% #49	CLEM

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #48	24.3 #68	Even
Yards / play	5.99 #58	5.47 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #62	+0.11 #73	Even
Success rate	43% #83	39% #42	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	12.5 #1	11.6 #14	24.1 #2	9.0 #18	6.3 #84	15.3 #39
VT allowed	3.8 #32	4.7 #15	8.4 #14	7.4 #109	4.9 #30	12.3 #70

VT scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	7.0 #45	7.2 #90	14.2 #65	6.0 #71	10.6 #6	16.6 #26
CLEM allowed	1.6 #5	8.5 #85	10.1 #34	4.6 #40	9.5 #120	14.1 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.