San Diego State @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F1 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

3-7 · Power #122

final

Final

Utah State

3-7 · Power #106

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -4.5

✓ USU W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 27–32 USU

✓ USU (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -4.5

CloseUSU -4.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSU -4.5

no move

CloseUSU -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open62.5

▼ 3

Close59.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USU -4.5 · unchangedmodel USU -7.5

model USU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 50% (128 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -4.5

CloseUSU -4.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 4.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 5.8; 63 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	TXST vs ULM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	27–19	W	U57.5
Very close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Close	ARST vs ULM 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	45–28	W	O58.75
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	EMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–50	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU WWLLL	4-5	44%	2-3	3-4
USU WLWLW	4-5	44%	3-1	1-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; USU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OUOUO	4-5	44%	3-7
USU OOUOO	7-2	78%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 214 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
USU	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SDSU 0–1 USU USU leads · 1 game since 2023 · USU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Utah State 32 @ San Diego State 24	USU -2	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−8.3 →−12.6▼ 4.3#118

USU−6.9 →−10.9▼ 4.0#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

SDSU

Longer bar = better

USU

#117

Offense

USU better ▶

#51

#92

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#129

+0.2 #54

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−0.3 #90

66 plays #82

Pace

USU faster ▶

73 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #115	39.1 #133	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #123	6.61 #127	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #102	+0.27 #129	SDSU
Success rate	36% #127	49% #127	Even

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #49	28.3 #92	USU
Yards / play	6.37 #33	5.74 #83	USU
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	+0.14 #93	USU
Success rate	44% #54	44% #98	USU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.5 #120	6.7 #105	10.2 #117	4.1 #112	7.3 #57	11.4 #100
USU allowed	5.1 #67	16.3 #134	21.4 #130	7.1 #105	10.6 #129	17.7 #129

USU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	6.9 #42	7.2 #91	14.1 #67	8.0 #29	8.4 #33	16.4 #29
SDSU allowed	8.3 #123	6.5 #47	14.8 #97	5.5 #66	8.0 #102	13.5 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.