Arizona @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

4-6 · Power #79

final

Final

TCU

6-4 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -10.5

✓ TCU W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 24–35 TCU

✓ TCU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -11.5

CloseTCU -10.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -11.5

1 → ARIZ

CloseTCU -10.5

1 pt toward Arizona

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Close60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -11.5 · closed TCU -10.5 · moved 1 toward ARIZmodel TCU -10

model TCU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 40% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (117 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -11.5

CloseTCU -10.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 10.5-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 49–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 60.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 9.4; 61.5 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC vs WAKE 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	31–24	L	U64.5
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9	30–42	L	O64.5
Very close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Close	TCU vs OKST 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	38–13	W	U68.5
Close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Close	SMU vs TLSA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	31–34	L	O62.5
Close	WSU vs ASU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	28–18	W	U59.5
Close	APP vs GAST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	42–17	W	U60.25
Close	UVA vs VT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-7	24–29	L	U63.5
Close	MIA vs GT 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	33–30	L	P63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ LLLLW	2-8	20%	1-3	1-3
TCU LWLLW	3-6	33%	1-4	1-5

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ OUOOU	4-6	40%	4-6
TCU UUOOU	5-4	56%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 169 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
TCU	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+9.2 →−0.1▼ 9.3#68

TCU+7.0 →+6.2▼ 0.8#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

TCU

#93

Offense

TCU better ▶

#25

#87

Defense

Even

#78

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

◀ ARIZ better

−0.8 #121

65 plays #95

Pace

TCU faster ▶

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #109	27.6 #86	TCU
Yards / play	5.75 #69	5.15 #38	TCU
PPA / play	+0.11 #87	+0.16 #102	Even
Success rate	39% #107	43% #86	TCU

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #32	28.3 #94	TCU
Yards / play	6.40 #30	5.94 #98	TCU
PPA / play	+0.25 #19	+0.10 #71	TCU
Success rate	48% #18	43% #84	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	5.1 #85	3.9 #128	9.0 #123	7.9 #31	5.7 #105	13.6 #63
TCU allowed	5.5 #81	8.1 #81	13.6 #81	7.2 #108	6.8 #72	14.0 #98

TCU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.9 #41	10.6 #27	17.5 #34	7.4 #43	8.3 #34	15.7 #33
ARIZ allowed	6.6 #103	10.0 #111	16.6 #112	5.8 #73	5.9 #54	11.7 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.