Kansas @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 10:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff30°F1 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas

3-6 · Power #35

▲ winner

Final

BYU

9-0 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

BYU -2.5

✓ KU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 25–29 BYU

✗ BYU (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -2.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -2.5

no move

CloseBYU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -2.5 · unchangedmodel BYU -8.5

model BYU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (187 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -2.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 2.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 17–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 3.8; 56 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Very close	LOU vs UK 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	21–52	L	O57.75
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	COLO vs CIN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	34–23	W	P57
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LLWWW	3-6	33%	1-3	2-2
BYU WWLWL	5-2	71%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; BYU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OOOOO	6-3	67%	3-6
BYU OOOOO	5-2	71%	9-0

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
BYU	9-1 90%	6-2 75%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KU 1–0 BYU KU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	BYU 27 @ Kansas 38	KU -9.5	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+7.2 →+7.0▼ 0.2#36

BYU−4.1 →+9.8▲ 13.9#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

BYU

#24

Offense

◀ KU better

#41

#87

Defense

BYU better ▶

#32

+0.2 #56

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+1.1 #10

65 plays #92

Pace

Even

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #40	19.8 #23	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #21	4.91 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #20	+0.02 #25	Even
Success rate	48% #15	40% #50	KU

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #29	25.9 #77	BYU
Yards / play	6.14 #46	5.88 #93	BYU
PPA / play	+0.21 #32	+0.15 #95	BYU
Success rate	44% #56	43% #82	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	7.8 #32	11.3 #16	19.1 #21	6.4 #59	6.1 #92	12.6 #83
BYU allowed	2.7 #15	8.6 #89	11.2 #48	2.6 #6	6.0 #60	8.6 #15

BYU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	7.3 #37	9.4 #46	16.8 #39	10.7 #8	6.2 #88	16.9 #20
KU allowed	3.8 #34	9.3 #101	13.1 #78	3.0 #9	9.8 #123	12.8 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.