BYU @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 10:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff34°F6 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

BYU

8-0 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Utah

4-4 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

BYU -3.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 22–18 UTAH

✓ BYU (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -5

CloseBYU -3.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -5

1.5 → UTAH

CloseBYU -3.5

1.5 pts toward Utah

Total

Open41.5

▼ 1

Close40.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -5 · closed BYU -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward UTAHmodel BYU -3.5 matches the line

model BYU -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (119 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (99 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -5

CloseBYU -3.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 3.5-point road favorite at UTAH, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 22–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 40.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.2 against an average line of 3.7; 44 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M @ SC 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	20–44	L	O43.5
Close	BSU @ SDSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	16–27	L	U44.25
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-2	13–3	W	U43.5
Close	TA&M @ SC 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–30	L	O44.5
Close	IOWA @ MSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	20–32	L	O39.5
Close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Close	MSU @ IU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	20–15	W	U48.5
Close	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-7	21–38	L	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WWWLW	5-1	83%	3-0	1-1
UTAH WLLLL	2-6	25%	1-3	—

Venue/role: BYU away, as favorite; UTAH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU UOOOO	4-2	67%	8-0
UTAH UUUUU	1-7	13%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 118 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	8-2 80%	7-1 88%	5-3 63%
UTAH	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU−4.1 →+9.5▲ 13.6#24

UTAH+6.4 →+3.9▼ 2.5#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BYU

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#34

Offense

◀ BYU better

#107

#32

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#12

+0.9 #21

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

−0.5 #102

66 plays #85

Pace

UTAH faster ▶

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	BYU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #26	16.5 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #43	4.91 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #27	−0.05 #10	Even
Success rate	45% #41	34% #2	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	UTAH off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #109	19.6 #25	BYU
Yards / play	5.56 #86	4.90 #24	BYU
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	+0.02 #25	BYU
Success rate	38% #117	40% #54	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	7.9 #30	9.8 #42	17.6 #33	11.6 #3	5.9 #98	17.5 #18
UTAH allowed	2.4 #12	5.1 #23	7.5 #8	4.0 #28	5.0 #34	9.0 #18

UTAH scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.0 #87	8.0 #74	13.0 #83	5.3 #84	4.5 #127	9.8 #117
BYU allowed	3.0 #18	7.0 #55	10.0 #30	2.9 #10	6.8 #77	9.6 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.