Utah State @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Washington State

Weather at kickoff42°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Utah State

2-6 · Power #106

final

Final

Washington State

7-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSU -20.5

✓ WSU W

Total

67.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 23–44 WSU

✓ WSU (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -22.5

CloseWSU -20.5

Total68.5 → 67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -22.5

2 → USU

CloseWSU -20.5

2 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open68.5

▼ 1

Close67.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -22.5 · closed WSU -20.5 · moved 2 toward USUmodel WSU -23

model WSU -23

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 48% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (75 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -22.5

CloseWSU -20.5

Total68.5 → 67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as a 20.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: WSU won 49–28; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 67.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.8 against an average line of 20.7; 55.2 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH vs FIU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-21.5	38–0	W	U64
Close	JXST vs MTSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-20.5	42–20	W	U64.5
Close	UTSA vs LT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-17	51–7	W	U68.75
Close	WAKE vs BC 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-20	43–15	W	U60
Close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Close	SMU vs USF 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-21.25	41–17	W	U68.5
Close	TULN vs UNT 2023 · Week 8 · close	-20	35–28	L	U63.5
Close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form	-17	17–13	L	U62
Close	LIB vs MASS 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-26.5	49–25	L	O63.5
Loose	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & total	-24	33–7	W	U63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU LLWLW	3-4	43%	1-3	2-3
WSU –LWWL	4-2	67%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; WSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OOOOU	5-2	71%	2-6
WSU –OUUU	2-4	33%	7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 63.5–71.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	7-2 78%
WSU	8-2 80%	6-2 75%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USU 3–4 WSU WSU leads · 7 games since 1949 · USU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.9 →−13.7▼ 6.8#120

WSU+2.5 →+4.3▲ 1.8#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

USU

Longer bar = better

WSU

#69

Offense

WSU better ▶

#26

#131

Defense

WSU better ▶

#89

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

WSU better ▶

+0.9 #19

73 plays #12

Pace

◀ USU faster

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #74	26.9 #86	Even
Yards / play	6.29 #42	6.13 #111	USU
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.11 #73	Even
Success rate	43% #80	43% #84	Even

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #13	41.5 #134	WSU
Yards / play	6.49 #29	6.80 #132	WSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #31	+0.30 #132	WSU
Success rate	46% #29	49% #127	WSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USU scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	5.6 #76	8.1 #74	13.8 #70	6.5 #58	7.5 #52	14.0 #57
WSU allowed	6.3 #94	5.8 #34	12.0 #65	7.6 #111	6.5 #74	14.1 #103

WSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	10.0 #10	11.9 #12	21.9 #7	4.8 #94	10.5 #7	15.3 #40
USU allowed	5.5 #73	18.3 #134	23.8 #133	7.1 #103	10.6 #130	17.8 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.