San José State @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff54°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

San José State

5-3 · Power #86

▲ winner

Final

Oregon State

4-4 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

ORST -2.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 27–30 ORST

✗ ORST (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -3

CloseORST -2.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -3

0.5 → SJSU

CloseORST -2.5

0.5 pts toward San José State

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -3 · closed ORST -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward SJSUmodel ORST -5

model ORST -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 49% (177 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -3

CloseORST -2.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 2.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 24–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.1 against an average line of 3.4; 49.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	WAKE vs UL 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	38–41	L	O59.5
Close	LOU vs SYR 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-3	41–3	W	U55.5
Close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Close	UL vs GAST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	17–20	L	U62
Close	LT vs NMSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	24–27	L	U55
Close	UVA vs GT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	17–45	L	O56
Close	BOIS vs WYO 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	32–7	W	U48.5
Close	SJSU vs USU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	17–48	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU –LLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-2
ORST WLLLL	2-5	29%	1-3	2-3

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU –OOUU	3-4	43%	5-3
ORST OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
ORST	4-6 40%	2-7 22%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SJSU 0–1 ORST ORST leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 3 2023	Oregon State 42 @ San José State 17	ORST -16.5	ORST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−2.2 →−5.6▼ 3.4#94

ORST+7.8 →−3.4▼ 11.2#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SJSU

Longer bar = better

ORST

#56

Offense

Even

#68

#49

Defense

◀ SJSU better

#115

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

−0.4 #96

67 plays #64

Pace

ORST faster ▶

73 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #60	29.4 #101	SJSU
Yards / play	6.28 #42	6.43 #121	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #60	+0.22 #116	SJSU
Success rate	44% #62	47% #120	SJSU

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #76	25.5 #77	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #94	5.02 #34	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	+0.02 #27	SJSU
Success rate	46% #36	40% #56	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	7.4 #37	7.4 #89	14.8 #60	5.6 #78	8.3 #36	13.9 #57
ORST allowed	5.9 #84	7.8 #74	13.6 #83	5.0 #50	9.9 #125	14.9 #110

ORST scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	4.8 #95	8.1 #72	12.9 #89	3.5 #117	9.1 #23	12.6 #79
SJSU allowed	6.0 #87	7.3 #64	13.3 #78	5.3 #59	6.0 #59	11.3 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.