Washington State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 9:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at New Mexico

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Washington State

8-1 · Power #68

final

Final

New Mexico

4-6 · Power #111

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSU -11.5

✓ UNM W

Total

71.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 42–30 UNM

✗ WSU (80%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -14

CloseWSU -11.5

Total72.5 → 71.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -14

2.5 → UNM

CloseWSU -11.5

2.5 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open72.5

▼ 1

Close71.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -14 · closed WSU -11.5 · moved 2.5 toward UNMmodel WSU -13

model WSU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 46% (86 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (86 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -14

CloseWSU -11.5

Total72.5 → 71.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as an 11.5-point road favorite at UNM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 38–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 71.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 11.2; 72.5 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MEM @ UNT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	45–42	L	O69.5
Close	UTSA @ UNT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	37–29	W	U71
Close	WKU @ CLT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	59–7	W	U72.5
Close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & rest	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Close	MRSH @ UNT 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-11	49–21	W	O66
Close	FRES @ UNM 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	38–21	W	U61
Close	MRSH @ MTSU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-11	28–34	L	U65.75
Close	UNC @ GT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-12	42–46	L	O65
Close	UTSA @ UNT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	23–45	L	O59.5
Loose	USC @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form	-14	45–37	L	O74

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU LWWLW	5-2	71%	1-2	4-1
UNM WWLLW	6-4	60%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: WSU away, as favorite; UNM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU OUUUO	3-4	43%	8-1
UNM OOUOU	7-3	70%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 67.5–75.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	8-2 80%	6-2 75%	3-5 38%
UNM	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSU 2–1 UNM WSU leads · 3 games since 2003 · UNM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+2.5 →+3.7▲ 1.2#53

UNM−11.4 →−12.3▼ 0.9#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WSU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#17

Offense

Even

#23

#89

Defense

◀ WSU better

#130

+1.0 #14

Turnovers

◀ WSU better

−0.8 #122

69 plays #38

Pace

Even

69 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #9	38.3 #130	WSU
Yards / play	6.54 #20	6.67 #129	WSU
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	+0.28 #131	WSU
Success rate	47% #19	50% #130	WSU

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #31	27.0 #83	UNM
Yards / play	6.93 #8	6.05 #107	UNM
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.12 #74	UNM
Success rate	46% #31	43% #91	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	9.7 #11	12.1 #11	21.8 #6	5.8 #77	10.9 #7	16.7 #24
UNM allowed	7.7 #114	12.2 #128	19.9 #126	6.2 #87	12.2 #133	18.4 #129

UNM scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.8 #31	10.9 #24	18.7 #24	6.7 #54	8.0 #42	14.7 #47
WSU allowed	6.3 #98	5.1 #20	11.4 #51	7.6 #112	7.3 #90	14.9 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.