App State @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

App State

2-3 · Power #99

final

Final

Louisiana

4-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -10.5

✓ APP W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 26–37 UL

✓ UL (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -10.5

CloseUL -10.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -10.5

no move

CloseUL -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open64.5

▼ 1

Close63.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -10.5 · unchangedmodel UL -10.5 matches the line

model UL -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 41% (66 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -10.5

CloseUL -10.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 10.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 34–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 63.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 12; 63.7 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs ARST 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-9	31–13	W	U66
Very close	MEM vs UNT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.75	44–34	L	O68.5
Very close	UL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	45–38	L	O57.5
Close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Close	UNLV vs HAW 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	44–20	W	O59
Close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	30–37	L	P67
Close	UTSA vs USF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	49–21	W	O66.5
Close	WKU vs UNT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	13–40	L	U70
Close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-13	43–46	L	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LLW–L	1-3	25%	1-2	1-2
UL –WLWL	2-2	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP UOU–O	2-2	50%	2-3
UL –UOOU	2-2	50%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 42% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
UL	5-5 50%	4-4-1 50%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−0.7 →−8.5▼ 7.8#99

UL−5.1 →−1.6▲ 3.5#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

APP

Longer bar = better

#82

Offense

UL better ▶

#24

#132

Defense

UL better ▶

#87

−1.2 #128

Turnovers

UL better ▶

0.0 #80

75 plays #6

Pace

◀ APP faster

65 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #92	22.4 #59	UL
Yards / play	5.97 #64	5.29 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.20 #109	APP
Success rate	41% #91	47% #121	APP

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #34	39.0 #130	UL
Yards / play	6.84 #24	7.01 #131	UL
PPA / play	+0.33 #15	+0.39 #136	UL
Success rate	49% #21	51% #131	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

APP scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	2.6 #126	11.0 #29	13.6 #77	5.6 #81	6.8 #74	12.4 #87
UL allowed	2.0 #9	8.8 #92	10.8 #57	8.4 #116	3.2 #15	11.6 #59

UL scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	6.2 #71	14.0 #5	20.2 #20	9.4 #19	4.6 #120	14.0 #57
APP allowed	14.4 #134	12.6 #129	27.0 #132	7.2 #103	4.8 #42	12.0 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.