Marshall @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Marshall

3-2 · Power #69

final

Final

Georgia Southern

3-2 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

GASO -1.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 29–30 GASO

✓ GASO (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -2.5

CloseGASO -1.5

Total61.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -2.5

4 → GASO

CloseGASO -1.5

4 pts toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open61.5

▼ 4

Close57.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -2.5 · closed GASO -1.5 · moved 4 toward GASOmodel MRSH -0.5

model MRSH -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (93 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -2.5

CloseGASO -1.5

Total61.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 1.5-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 24–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 57.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 2.1; 55 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU vs FRES 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	42–18	W	O51.5
Close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	UNT vs UTEP 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-0.5	20–17	W	U55
Close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	35–31	W	O51
Close	GAST vs GASO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–38	L	O57
Close	NIU vs VAN 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	28–38	L	O58.5
Close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-3	14–24	L	U53.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	2-0
GASO WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; GASO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH UUOUO	2-3	40%	3-2
GASO OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
GASO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MRSH 1–0 GASO MRSH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MRSH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Georgia Southern 33 @ Marshall 38	GASO -1	MRSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−5.5 →−4.4▲ 1.1#86

GASO−6.0 →−7.3▼ 1.3#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MRSH

Longer bar = better

GASO

#62

Offense

◀ MRSH better

#77

#84

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#122

+0.6 #36

Turnovers

◀ MRSH better

+0.4 #50

63 plays #101

Pace

GASO faster ▶

71 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #60	32.0 #113	MRSH
Yards / play	5.92 #65	7.21 #134	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.18 #55	+0.24 #121	MRSH
Success rate	44% #67	47% #121	MRSH

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #48	28.0 #93	GASO
Yards / play	5.04 #115	5.39 #65	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	+0.14 #90	GASO
Success rate	42% #85	43% #88	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	5.6 #82	11.0 #30	16.6 #47	5.4 #82	8.4 #41	13.8 #64
GASO allowed	10.4 #129	5.6 #44	16.0 #104	9.2 #127	6.8 #80	16.0 #115

GASO scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	5.6 #82	11.4 #28	17.0 #46	8.2 #30	6.4 #80	14.6 #49
MRSH allowed	4.0 #41	7.6 #74	11.6 #66	10.4 #131	6.0 #63	16.4 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.