East Carolina @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Army · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

3-3 · Power #92

final

Final

Army

6-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARMY -18.5

✓ ECU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 14–33 ARMY

✓ ARMY (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -17

CloseARMY -18.5

Total51.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -17

1.5 → ARMY

CloseARMY -18.5

1.5 pts toward Army

Total

Open51.5

▲ 3

Close54.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -17 · closed ARMY -18.5 · moved 1.5 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -17

model ARMY -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 52% (50 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (62 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -17

CloseARMY -18.5

Total51.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as an 18.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 45–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 16.7; 60.1 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Close	WASH vs STAN 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	40–22	W	P62
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Close	ARIZ vs UTEP 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-18.25	31–10	W	U57.25
Close	DUKE vs NU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings	-17	38–14	W	O48
Loose	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Loose	CCU vs GAST 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-12.5	40–42	L	O53.5
Loose	ASU vs WSU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-16.5	21–34	L	O54.5
Loose	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-14	44–17	W	O50
Loose	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & total	-22.5	28–20	L	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU WLLWL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-1
ARMY WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	5-0

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; ARMY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UUOUO	2-4	33%	3-3
ARMY UOOOU	4-2	67%	6-0

Went over in Q4. Of 259 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
ARMY	10-0 100%	8-1 89%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−7.2 →−9.0▼ 1.8#104

ARMY−16.8 →+4.2▲ 21.0#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ECU

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#101

Offense

ARMY better ▶

#40

Defense

Even

#29

−1.0 #123

Turnovers

ARMY better ▶

+1.2 #13

70 plays #28

Pace

◀ ECU faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	ECU off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #83	9.8 #2	ARMY
Yards / play	5.48 #97	4.58 #14	ARMY
PPA / play	−0.01 #121	−0.04 #11	ARMY
Success rate	40% #102	43% #90	Even

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #16	24.7 #76	ARMY
Yards / play	7.52 #7	4.96 #28	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.52 #3	+0.02 #33	ARMY
Success rate	59% #1	36% #23	ARMY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	9.3 #18	5.2 #115	14.5 #66	7.7 #39	4.3 #124	12.0 #91
ARMY allowed	2.8 #17	1.2 #4	4.0 #5	2.2 #9	3.7 #18	5.8 #8

ARMY scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	10.3 #14	11.7 #20	22.0 #15	10.2 #10	7.5 #54	17.7 #19
ECU allowed	4.5 #55	8.0 #80	12.5 #72	5.2 #62	7.0 #85	12.2 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.