Pittsburgh @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

4-0 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

3-2 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

PITT -2.5

✓ PITT W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 31–29 UNC

✓ PITT (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -2.5

ClosePITT -2.5

Total64.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -2.5

no move

ClosePITT -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open64.5

▼ 3

Close61.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -2.5 · unchangedmodel UNC -3

model UNC -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 43% (86 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -2.5

ClosePITT -2.5

Total64.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 2.5-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 34–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 61.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 3.7; 50.9 points a game (usually 53). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ SMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	29–27	L	U59.5
Close	FRES @ WYO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–0	W	U53.5
Close	TCU @ TTU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	52–31	W	O60.5
Close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	40–43	L	O55
Close	ASU @ ORST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	10–24	L	U59
Close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–14	W	U55
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Close	TEX @ TCU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	32–27	W	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WLWW	3-1	75%	0-1	2-1
UNC WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-3	—

Venue/role: PITT away, as favorite; UNC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0
UNC UOUOU	2-3	40%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 46% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UNC	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PITT 6–13 UNC UNC leads · 19 games since 1974 · UNC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	North Carolina 41 @ Pittsburgh 24	UNC -7	UNC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT−0.9 →+3.8▲ 4.7#54

UNC+7.2 →+4.1▼ 3.1#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

PITT

Longer bar = better

UNC

Offense

◀ PITT better

#61

#65

Defense

Even

#70

+1.3 #14

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

−0.6 #107

67 plays #60

Pace

UNC faster ▶

73 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #5	27.6 #92	PITT
Yards / play	7.76 #6	5.56 #81	PITT
PPA / play	+0.37 #12	+0.08 #67	PITT
Success rate	51% #11	37% #40	PITT

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #38	25.5 #82	UNC
Yards / play	6.28 #49	4.82 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.14 #93	Even
Success rate	43% #70	38% #48	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	12.0 #10	11.3 #37	23.3 #14	9.5 #19	15.8 #2	25.3 #2
UNC allowed	7.0 #102	9.6 #106	16.6 #106	4.2 #45	6.8 #83	11.0 #57

UNC scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.6 #44	9.0 #61	16.6 #59	7.2 #60	10.6 #16	17.8 #28
PITT allowed	7.0 #102	7.5 #73	14.5 #95	8.5 #115	2.5 #15	11.0 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.