Arizona State @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

5-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

3-5 · Power #87

final

Closing spread

ASU -4.5

✓ ASU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 31–27 OKST

✓ ASU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -1.5

CloseASU -4.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -1.5

3 → ASU

CloseASU -4.5

3 pts toward Arizona State

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -1.5 · closed ASU -4.5 · moved 3 toward ASUmodel ASU -1.5

model ASU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 46% (69 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -1.5

CloseASU -4.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 4.5-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 42–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 4.5; 56.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY @ TCU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	28–30	L	O57
Close	LSU @ ARK 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.25	13–10	L	U59
Close	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75
Close	TENN @ UK 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-1	45–42	W	O57.5
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	42–14	W	O53
Close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	KSU @ TTU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-1	25–24	P	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU WLWWL	5-2	71%	1-2	3-0
OKST LLLWL	3-5	38%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: ASU away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2
OKST UOUOO	5-3	63%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 282 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
OKST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ASU 0–1 OKST OKST leads · 1 game since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Oklahoma State 27 @ Arizona State 15	OKST -2.5	OKST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU−3.3 →+4.7▲ 8.0#47

OKST+4.1 →+0.2▼ 3.9#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ASU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#43

Offense

◀ ASU better

#63

#48

Defense

◀ ASU better

#113

+0.7 #28

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

0.0 #79

68 plays #49

Pace

Even

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ASU offense

	ASU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #56	29.9 #102	ASU
Yards / play	5.87 #66	6.94 #133	ASU
PPA / play	+0.20 #40	+0.21 #115	ASU
Success rate	50% #11	44% #100	ASU

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #50	23.1 #61	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #70	4.92 #25	ASU
PPA / play	+0.19 #45	+0.07 #53	Even
Success rate	42% #86	40% #52	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	7.7 #33	9.3 #54	17.0 #41	7.3 #45	5.3 #109	12.6 #81
OKST allowed	5.1 #62	9.9 #115	15.0 #94	5.6 #64	9.3 #117	14.9 #109

OKST scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	4.1 #104	10.0 #36	14.1 #68	5.0 #89	10.4 #9	15.4 #43
ASU allowed	6.3 #94	6.3 #45	12.6 #73	4.4 #38	6.1 #70	10.6 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.