Tulsa @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at North Texas · Conference game

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Tulsa

2-2 · Power #131

final

Final

North Texas

3-1 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -7.5

✓ UNT W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 29–37 UNT

✓ UNT (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -7

CloseUNT -7.5

Total68.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -7

0.5 → UNT

CloseUNT -7.5

0.5 pts toward North Texas

Total

Open68.5

▼ 3

Close65.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -7 · closed UNT -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward UNTmodel UNT -11.5

model UNT -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (77 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -7

CloseUNT -7.5

Total68.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 7.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 52–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 65.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 8.7; 49.3 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	UNLV vs CSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	25–23	L	U60
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	31–10	W	U63.5
Close	WKU vs UNT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	13–40	L	U70
Close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Close	UCF vs ECU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-10	20–16	L	U65.25
Close	UAB vs TEM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-8	34–24	W	U61.5
Close	UNLV vs HAW 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-11	44–20	W	O59
Close	CMU vs BALL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	16–17	L	U63.5
Close	WKU vs FAU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.25	52–17	W	O64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LWLW	2-2	50%	2-0	2-1
UNT WL–W	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2
UNT OU–O	2-1	67%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
UNT	5-5 50%	6-2-1 75%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TLSA 0–1 UNT UNT leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	North Texas 35 @ Tulsa 28	UNT -2	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−9.9 →−12.0▼ 2.1#114

UNT−6.3 →−4.0▲ 2.3#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TLSA

Longer bar = better

UNT

#72

Offense

UNT better ▶

#38

#84

Defense

◀ TLSA better

#100

+0.5 #51

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−1.3 #126

67 plays #61

Pace

UNT faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: TLSA offense

	TLSA off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #75	35.3 #122	TLSA
Yards / play	6.25 #55	5.87 #96	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.20 #54	+0.19 #106	TLSA
Success rate	40% #105	41% #75	UNT

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #23	30.3 #105	UNT
Yards / play	6.65 #30	5.37 #65	UNT
PPA / play	+0.24 #43	+0.18 #100	UNT
Success rate	45% #56	40% #67	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	6.0 #74	11.0 #39	17.0 #51	5.3 #89	6.8 #69	12.0 #81
UNT allowed	8.3 #115	18.0 #134	26.3 #132	4.3 #48	4.8 #56	9.0 #39

UNT scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.8 #35	8.5 #66	17.3 #49	14.0 #3	6.8 #69	20.8 #15
TLSA allowed	7.0 #97	7.0 #66	14.0 #91	7.8 #107	8.5 #113	16.3 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.