Troy @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Iowa

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Troy

0-2 · Power #97

final

Final

Iowa

1-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -23.5

✓ TROY W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 9–30 IOWA

✓ IOWA (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -20.5

CloseIOWA -23.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -20.5

3 → IOWA

CloseIOWA -23.5

3 pts toward Iowa

Total

Open39.5

no move

Close39.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -20.5 · closed IOWA -23.5 · moved 3 toward IOWAmodel IOWA -11.5

model IOWA -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–25.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 40% (56 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -20.5

CloseIOWA -23.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 23.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 38–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 22.8; 46.5 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	28–16	L	U44.5
Close	WYO vs UNM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-20	3–14	L	U40.5
Loose	SJSU vs NEV 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-24.5	35–28	L	O44.5
Loose	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Loose	SDSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-19.5	31–7	W	U42.5
Loose	WISC vs NU 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-25.5	35–7	W	O41.5
Loose	IOWA vs CSU 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23.5	24–14	L	U43.75
Loose	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Loose	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Loose	FSU vs GT 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-23.5	41–16	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
IOWA –L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OU	1-1	50%	0-2
IOWA –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 55 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
IOWA	6-4 60%	1-6 14%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY+2.8 →−5.4▼ 8.2#93

IOWA+2.5 →+2.5–#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TROY

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#85

Offense

Even

#86

#123

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#37

−0.5 #102

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+1.0 #31

63 plays #93

Pace

IOWA faster ▶

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	TROY off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #105	10.0 #25	IOWA
Yards / play	5.10 #106	4.37 #42	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.19 #60	−0.13 #27	IOWA
Success rate	43% #70	35% #52	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: IOWA offense

	IOWA off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #77	33.0 #118	IOWA
Yards / play	5.76 #79	6.71 #124	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.04 #97	+0.30 #123	IOWA
Success rate	40% #90	50% #127	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 46 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.5	7.0	10.5	3.0	8.0	11.0
IOWA allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0	3.0	10.0

IOWA scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	5.0	4.5	9.5	9.5	10.5	20.0
TROY allowed	3.5	10.0	13.5	12.5	7.0	19.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.