Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Alabama
Closing spread
ALA -37.5
✓ ALA W
Total
60.5
▲ Over · 63 pts
Model before kickoff
WKU 10–46 ALA
✓ ALA (100%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenALA -31
CloseALA -37.5
Total60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenALA -31
6.5 → ALA
CloseALA -37.5
6.5 pts toward Alabama
Total
Open60.5
no move
Close60.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ALA -31 · closed ALA -37.5 · moved 6.5 toward ALAmodel ALA -30.5
model ALA -30.5
Opened 60.5 · unchangedmodel 55.5
model 55.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenALA -31
CloseALA -37.5
Total60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 5 games most like 
ALA as a 37.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: ALA won 63–0; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 63 points went over 60.5, as in 2 of 5.
Favorite won
5 of 5100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
3 of 560%
Normal range · usually 60%
Went over
2 of 540%
Normal range · usually 53%
Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 38 against an average line of 37.2; 59.6 points a game (usually 57.2). When games like this go over ›
All 5 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close | ALA vs  USU2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total |
-42 | 55–0 | W | U63 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation |
-36.5 | 47–3 | W | U53.5 |
| Loose |  TENN vs  BALL2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-36.25 | 59–10 | W | O66.5 |
| Loose |  UGA vs  MIZ2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar total |
-40 | 43–6 | L | U59 |
| Loose |  OU vs  TULN2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-31.25 | 40–35 | L | O66.5 |
TA&M
ULMHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Alabama ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Alabama
6.5 pts (ALA -31 → ALA -37.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Western Kentucky have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 104 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 WKU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-5 44% |
| ALA | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 8-1 89% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ALA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
80° · 4 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
WKU1st game
ALA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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