San Diego State @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at California

Weather at kickoff57°F12 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

1-1 · Power #122

final

Final

California

2-0 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAL -18.5

✓ CAL W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 15–32 CAL

✓ CAL (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -17.5

CloseCAL -18.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -17.5

1 → CAL

CloseCAL -18.5

1 pt toward California

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -17.5 · closed CAL -18.5 · moved 1 toward CALmodel CAL -13

model CAL -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 48% (83 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -17.5

CloseCAL -18.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as an 18.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CAL won 31–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 48.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 19.3 against an average line of 17; 52.5 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-16	38–21	W	O46
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-19.5	30–27	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU –L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
CAL LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU –U	0-1	0%	1-1
CAL UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	4-4-1 50%
CAL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−8.3 →−7.1▲ 1.2#95

CAL+2.0 →+2.5▲ 0.5#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

SDSU

Longer bar = better

CAL

#111

Offense

CAL better ▶

#97

#50

Defense

Even

#41

+1.0 #22

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+3.5 #1

61 plays #109

Pace

CAL faster ▶

68 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	SDSU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #106	13.5 #32	CAL
Yards / play	5.30 #106	4.54 #39	CAL
PPA / play	+0.04 #104	−0.16 #13	CAL
Success rate	33% #129	40% #79	CAL

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	CAL off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #93	17.5 #49	SDSU
Yards / play	4.51 #125	4.38 #32	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #106	−0.08 #28	SDSU
Success rate	44% #65	41% #89	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 105 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	1.5	0.0	1.5	10.5	10.5	21.0
CAL allowed	6.5	3.5	10.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

CAL scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.0	7.0	14.0	5.0	7.0	12.0
SDSU allowed	3.5	3.0	6.5	4.0	7.0	11.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.