Utah @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 4:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Utah State

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Utah

2-0 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

1-1 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

UTAH -20.5

✓ USU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 35–15 USU

✓ UTAH (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -22

CloseUTAH -20.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -22

1.5 → USU

CloseUTAH -20.5

1.5 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -22 · closed UTAH -20.5 · moved 1.5 toward USUmodel UTAH -20.5 matches the line

model UTAH -20.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -22

CloseUTAH -20.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 20.5-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 38–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.6 against an average line of 18.9; 41.6 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE @ CONN 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-22	41–7	W	O45
Close	BAY @ KU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	45–7	W	O48.5
Close	MIA @ TEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	41–7	W	O46.5
Close	MRSH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	31–34	L	O50
Close	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Close	RUTG @ TEM 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-18	16–14	L	U42.75
Loose	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Loose	BC @ TEM 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-15	28–3	W	U55.5
Loose	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Loose	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-17	42–7	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
USU –L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UU	0-2	0%	2-0
USU –U	0-1	0%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 129 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
USU	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-3-1 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+6.4 →+9.9▲ 3.5#22

USU−6.9 →−11.1▼ 4.2#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UTAH

Longer bar = better

USU

#57

Offense

◀ UTAH better

#72

#10

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#115

0.0 #62

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

−1.0 #111

63 plays #95

Pace

◀ UTAH faster

59 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #44	31.0 #111	UTAH
Yards / play	6.44 #48	5.96 #102	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.26 #52	+0.26 #116	UTAH
Success rate	41% #84	51% #129	UTAH

When USU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	USU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #118	6.0 #7	UTAH
Yards / play	7.15 #33	3.33 #11	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.11 #80	−0.23 #9	UTAH
Success rate	45% #55	29% #13	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 52 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	12.0	17.0	29.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
USU allowed	5.0	15.5	20.5	3.5	7.0	10.5

USU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	3.5	1.5	5.0	5.0	8.0	13.0
UTAH allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	4.5	0.0	4.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.