Stanford @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Stanford

2-1 · Power #96

final

Final

Clemson

2-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -23.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 15–39 CLEM

✓ CLEM (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -22

CloseCLEM -23.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -22

1.5 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -23.5

1.5 pts toward Clemson

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -22 · closed CLEM -23.5 · moved 1.5 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -23.5 matches the line

model CLEM -23.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–25.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 43% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -22

CloseCLEM -23.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 23.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 40–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 28.7 against an average line of 22.8; 61.7 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Very close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Close	ORST vs STAN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-21.5	62–17	W	O52.5
Close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-24	27–31	L	P58
Close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	69–10	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
CLEM LWW	2-1	67%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
CLEM UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CLEM	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−5.0 →−3.6▲ 1.4#82

CLEM+12.9 →+13.5▲ 0.6#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

STAN

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#92

Offense

CLEM better ▶

#12

#84

Defense

◀ STAN better

#106

+0.3 #61

Turnovers

CLEM better ▶

+1.3 #14

68 plays #48

Pace

◀ STAN faster

64 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #62	29.7 #103	STAN
Yards / play	5.24 #106	6.26 #117	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #110	+0.19 #104	Even
Success rate	41% #91	43% #99	Even

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	42.7 #15	21.7 #62	CLEM
Yards / play	7.41 #15	5.68 #85	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.53 #4	+0.10 #77	CLEM
Success rate	52% #14	44% #111	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	7.0 #55	7.7 #82	14.7 #76	8.0 #44	8.7 #39	16.7 #39
CLEM allowed	0.0 #1	8.7 #96	8.7 #37	9.3 #122	11.7 #128	21.0 #131

CLEM scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	21.0 #1	12.7 #22	33.7 #2	9.0 #27	0.0 #134	9.0 #114
STAN allowed	2.3 #20	6.7 #58	9.0 #42	5.7 #73	7.0 #88	12.7 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.