Florida International @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:42 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Florida Atlantic

Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Florida International

1-1 · Power #121

final

Final

Florida Atlantic

0-2 · Power #118

▲ winner

Closing spread

FAU -3.5

✓ FAU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 21–25 FAU

✓ FAU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFAU -6.5

CloseFAU -3.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFAU -6.5

3 → FIU

CloseFAU -3.5

3 pts toward Florida International

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FAU -6.5 · closed FAU -3.5 · moved 3 toward FIUmodel FAU -5

model FAU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (119 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 41% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFAU -6.5

CloseFAU -3.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FAU as a 3.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FAU won 38–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 3.4; 51.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	30–45	L	O52
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Loose	EMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3.5	30–27	L	O39.5
Loose	RICE vs USM 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-1.25	24–19	W	U45
Loose	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Loose	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
FAU WL	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; FAU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
FAU UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 158 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
FAU	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FIU 6–17 FAU FAU leads · 23 games since 2003 · FAU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−14.7 →−13.6▲ 1.1#123

FAU−6.9 →−11.1▼ 4.2#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

FIU

Longer bar = better

FAU

#111

Offense

◀ FIU better

#131

#87

Defense

Even

#80

+2.5 #4

Turnovers

◀ FIU better

+0.5 #51

55 plays #132

Pace

FAU faster ▶

63 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: FAU defense

	FIU off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #76	20.0 #68	Even
Yards / play	4.46 #124	6.03 #105	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #114	+0.02 #73	FAU
Success rate	34% #128	39% #75	FAU

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	FAU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	8.5 #134	23.5 #83	FIU
Yards / play	3.83 #133	5.26 #78	FIU
PPA / play	−0.21 #135	+0.07 #84	FIU
Success rate	34% #123	43% #101	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 95 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	3.5	14.0	17.5	4.0	8.0	12.0
FAU allowed	8.0	7.0	15.0	1.5	3.5	5.0

FAU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	0.0	5.0	5.0	3.5	0.0	3.5
FIU allowed	7.0	7.5	14.5	5.5	3.5	9.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.