Washington State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Boise State

Weather at kickoff75°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Washington State

4-0 · Power #68

final

Final

Boise State

2-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -6.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 30–36 BOIS

✓ BOIS (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -7

CloseBOIS -6.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -7

0.5 → WSU

CloseBOIS -6.5

0.5 pts toward Washington State

Total

Open64.5

▲ 1

Close65.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -7 · closed BOIS -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward WSUmodel BOIS -5.5

model BOIS -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (92 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -7

CloseBOIS -6.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 6.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 45–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 65.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 6.4; 60.1 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Very close	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–17	W	U63
Very close	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	21–31	L	U67.5
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Close	CCU vs GAST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	17–30	L	U62.5
Close	GASO vs CCU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	38–28	W	O64.5
Close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Close	UNC vs UVA 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	59–39	W	O66.5
Close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	41–3	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU WW––	2-0	100%	—	1-0
BOIS LW–	1-1	50%	—	0-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU OU––	1-1	50%	4-0
BOIS OO–	2-0	100%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 47 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%
BOIS	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSU 5–2 BOIS WSU leads · 7 games since 1997 · BOIS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+2.5 →+5.1▲ 2.6#40

BOIS+2.2 →+7.1▲ 4.9#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WSU

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#21

Offense

Even

#89

Defense

Even

#96

+1.0 #20

Turnovers

◀ WSU better

+0.3 #57

69 plays #46

Pace

Even

68 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	46.3 #9	32.0 #114	WSU
Yards / play	7.49 #12	5.45 #72	WSU
PPA / play	+0.30 #21	+0.18 #102	WSU
Success rate	46% #41	42% #94	WSU

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	48.7 #5	29.3 #101	BOIS
Yards / play	7.95 #4	6.05 #103	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.40 #9	+0.09 #72	BOIS
Success rate	50% #18	41% #78	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	11.5 #15	17.8 #1	29.3 #3	7.0 #61	8.0 #47	15.0 #49
BOIS allowed	4.7 #70	7.7 #79	12.3 #76	9.0 #118	10.7 #125	19.7 #131

BOIS scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	8.0 #40	17.3 #4	25.3 #10	7.3 #58	16.0 #1	23.3 #3
WSU allowed	6.8 #96	7.5 #73	14.3 #91	8.3 #114	5.3 #59	13.5 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.