Sun, Sep 1, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
LSU -3.5
✓ USC W
Total
67.5
▼ Under · 47 pts
Model before kickoff
USC 37–41 LSU
✗ LSU (62%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLSU -6
CloseLSU -3.5
Total62.5 → 67.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLSU -6
2.5 → USC
CloseLSU -3.5
2.5 pts toward USC
Total
Open62.5
▲ 5
Close67.5
Up 5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LSU -6 · closed LSU -3.5 · moved 2.5 toward USCmodel LSU -7
model LSU -7
Opened 62.5 · closed 67.5 · moved 5 upmodel 78.5
model 78.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLSU -6
CloseLSU -3.5
Total62.5 → 67.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 5 games most like 
LSU as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against USC, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: USC won 27–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 47 points stayed under 67.5, as in 2 of 5.
Favorite won
2 of 540%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
2 of 540%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
3 of 560%
Normal range · usually 48%
Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 4 against an average line of 3.6; 81.2 points a game (usually 53.3). When games like this go over ›
All 5 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  MISS vs  TTU2022 · Postseason · close |
-4.25 | 25–42 | L | U72.5 |
| Loose |  ARK vs  KU2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread |
-1.5 | 55–53 | W | O70.5 |
| Loose |  OU vs  TEX2021 · Week 6 · loose |
-4 | 55–48 | W | O65.5 |
| Loose |  USC vs  TULN2022 · Postseason · loose |
-1.5 | 45–46 | L | O66.5 |
| Loose |  ORST vs  USU2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total |
-6.75 | 13–24 | L | U68.25 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight USC ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward USC
2.5 pts (LSU -6 → LSU -3.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 5
62.5 → 67.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
USC have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 42% of games with totals 63.5–71.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% | 7-2 78% |
| LSU | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 8-1 89% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
USC1st game
LSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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VT @ 
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AKR @ 
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CSU @