Kansas State @ TCU: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at TCU · Conference game

Kansas State

4-2 · Power #42

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

TCU

3-3 · Power #36

projected

KSU 36%

64% TCU

Spread

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Total

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model 48.5

Model line

TCU -5

TCU 64% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

Now—

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Total

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Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-1	—
TCU WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: KSU away; TCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2
TCU OUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs ARIZ	L17–23LU
Nov 28	@ ISU	L21–24LU

TCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UTAH	W13–7WU
Nov 26	@ TTU	W35–34LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KSU 2–0 TCU KSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · KSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	TCU 28 @ Kansas State 41	TCU -2.5	KSU W
Oct 21 2023	TCU 3 @ Kansas State 41	KSU -5.5	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+6.3 →+6.4▲ 0.1#42

TCU+8.0 →+8.7▲ 0.7#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

KSU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#29

Offense

◀ KSU better

#88

#51

Defense

TCU better ▶

−0.3 #97

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #85

71 plays #27

Pace

◀ KSU faster

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	KSU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #33	12.2 #3	TCU
Yards / play	6.58 #25	4.33 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #28	−0.09 #7	TCU
Success rate	48% #30	34% #11	Even

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	TCU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #99	20.0 #39	KSU
Yards / play	5.94 #62	5.07 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	+0.13 #89	Even
Success rate	41% #92	37% #28	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.3 #65	11.7 #26	18.0 #41	8.5 #20	9.0 #29	17.5 #21
TCU allowed	2.8 #18	6.0 #47	8.8 #31	1.0 #2	2.3 #2	3.3 #1

TCU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.3 #65	6.3 #106	12.7 #94	5.7 #81	5.7 #103	11.3 #93
KSU allowed	5.2 #82	6.2 #52	11.3 #60	6.3 #94	2.3 #2	8.7 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.