South Carolina @ Arkansas: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Arkansas · Conference game

South Carolina

3-3 · Power #28

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Arkansas

3-4 · Power #57

projected

SC 66%

34% ARK

Spread

—

Total

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model 55.5

Model line

SC -5.5

SC 66% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
ARK LWLWW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SC away; ARK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3
ARK OUUUO	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ARK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

South Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UGA	L14–24WU
Nov 28	@ CLEM	L14–28LU

Arkansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ TEX	L37–52LO
Nov 28	vs LSU	L22–23WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+9.4 →+11.1▲ 1.7#28

ARK+7.3 →+2.6▼ 4.7#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

ARK

#38

Offense

◀ SC better

#102

#83

Defense

◀ SC better

#103

−0.5 #108

Turnovers

ARK better ▶

+0.1 #65

73 plays #9

Pace

◀ SC faster

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: SC offense

	SC off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #17	26.7 #96	SC
Yards / play	6.52 #34	6.02 #110	SC
PPA / play	+0.19 #48	+0.20 #113	SC
Success rate	45% #54	43% #94	SC

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #115	25.5 #84	SC
Yards / play	4.99 #121	5.37 #65	SC
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.16 #108	Even
Success rate	43% #67	42% #76	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SC scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.0 #34	11.3 #30	19.3 #28	7.0 #43	10.2 #12	17.2 #24
ARK allowed	5.0 #75	8.6 #94	13.6 #93	6.7 #102	6.4 #77	13.1 #97

ARK scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	3.9 #104	4.3 #131	8.1 #127	6.0 #70	6.9 #69	12.9 #77
SC allowed	3.5 #41	8.5 #91	12.0 #70	6.7 #100	5.5 #50	12.2 #80

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.