Auburn @ Mississippi State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Auburn

4-2 · Power #25

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Mississippi State

4-2 · Power #29

projected

AUB 47%

53% MSST

Spread

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Total

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model 57

Model line

MSST -1

MSST 53% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
MSST WWWLL	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: AUB away; MSST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UOUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
MSST UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
MSST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Auburn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs SAM	W45–13LU
Nov 28	@ ALA	L20–27PU

Mississippi State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs TNTC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 27	@ MISS	L19–38LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AUB 1–0 MSST AUB leads · 1 game since 2023 · AUB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Mississippi State 13 @ Auburn 27	AUB -6.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.9 →+11.8▼ 0.1#24

MSST+5.6 →+10.5▲ 4.9#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

AUB

Longer bar = better

MSST

#91

Offense

MSST better ▶

#41

#52

Defense

◀ AUB better

#101

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

−0.5 #106

71 plays #25

Pace

Even

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #84	28.5 #111	AUB
Yards / play	5.58 #91	5.49 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	+0.14 #95	Even
Success rate	41% #95	46% #123	AUB

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #48	21.8 #55	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #38	5.06 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	+0.03 #43	Even
Success rate	48% #33	41% #64	MSST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.2 #71	9.2 #67	15.3 #66	6.2 #68	5.3 #112	11.5 #91
MSST allowed	7.3 #118	7.8 #78	15.2 #105	9.2 #132	4.2 #23	13.3 #100

MSST scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.3 #19	9.7 #56	19.0 #33	6.0 #70	7.5 #55	13.5 #65
AUB allowed	4.0 #46	5.2 #29	9.2 #35	5.7 #85	7.0 #89	12.7 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.