California @ Virginia: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Virginia · Conference game

California

3-4 · Power #85

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Virginia

4-4 · Power #50

projected

CAL 15%

85% UVA

Spread

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Total

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model 48

Model line

UVA -14

UVA 85% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LLLWL	2-5	29%	1-1	—
UVA WLLPL	3-4-1	43%	3-2	—

Venue/role: CAL away; UVA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL UUOUU	2-5	29%	3-4
UVA UUOUU	3-5	38%	4-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UVA	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

California

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs STAN	L10–31LU
Nov 28	vs PITT	L15–17WU

Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UNC	W17–16LU
Nov 28	@ VT	W27–7WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CAL 0–1 UVA UVA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UVA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Virginia 31 @ California 21	UVA -5.5	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL−0.3 →−4.7▼ 4.4#88

UVA+7.4 →+4.4▼ 3.0#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CAL

Longer bar = better

UVA

#116

Offense

UVA better ▶

#65

#90

Defense

UVA better ▶

#55

+0.1 #66

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+0.5 #34

71 plays #24

Pace

◀ CAL faster

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	CAL off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #100	19.6 #37	UVA
Yards / play	5.35 #109	5.15 #53	UVA
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	+0.09 #72	UVA
Success rate	38% #126	40% #57	UVA

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #76	27.7 #105	UVA
Yards / play	5.33 #112	5.96 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #34	+0.15 #99	UVA
Success rate	47% #39	39% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.1 #48	5.3 #118	12.4 #98	5.4 #87	6.0 #94	11.4 #92
UVA allowed	3.0 #29	7.1 #70	10.1 #48	4.4 #58	5.1 #43	9.5 #44

UVA scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	9.1 #27	6.4 #105	15.5 #65	5.6 #84	7.1 #64	12.8 #81
CAL allowed	4.4 #59	13.4 #134	17.9 #123	2.9 #29	7.0 #89	9.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.