North Carolina @ Virginia: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Virginia · Conference game

North Carolina

4-2 · Power #47

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Virginia

4-4 · Power #50

projected

UNC 44%

56% UVA

Spread

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Total

—

model 44

Model line

UVA -2

UVA 56% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—
UVA WLLPL	3-4-1	43%	3-2	—

Venue/role: UNC away; UVA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UOOUU	2-4	33%	4-2
UVA UUOUU	3-5	38%	4-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UVA	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs NCSU	L19–42LO

Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ VT	W27–7WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UNC 65–51 UVA (4 tied) UNC leads · 120 games since 1902 · UVA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Virginia 17 @ North Carolina 16	UVA -12.5	UNC W
Oct 26 2024	North Carolina 41 @ Virginia 14	UVA -3.5	UNC W
Oct 21 2023	Virginia 31 @ North Carolina 27	UNC -24	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC−2.1 →+5.0▲ 7.1#48

UVA+7.4 →+4.4▼ 3.0#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNC

Longer bar = better

UVA

#82

Offense

UVA better ▶

#65

#51

Defense

Even

#55

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+0.5 #34

58 plays #137

Pace

UVA faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	UNC off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #102	19.6 #37	UVA
Yards / play	5.73 #82	5.15 #53	UVA
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.09 #72	Even
Success rate	45% #52	40% #57	Even

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #76	19.2 #33	UNC
Yards / play	5.33 #112	4.96 #36	UNC
PPA / play	+0.23 #34	+0.02 #41	Even
Success rate	47% #39	43% #92	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	8.0 #34	6.7 #103	14.7 #75	5.0 #95	3.8 #130	8.8 #126
UVA allowed	3.0 #29	7.1 #70	10.1 #48	4.4 #58	5.1 #43	9.5 #44

UVA scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	9.1 #27	6.4 #105	15.5 #65	5.6 #84	7.1 #64	12.8 #81
UNC allowed	5.7 #89	3.3 #13	9.0 #33	3.0 #31	7.2 #96	10.2 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.