NC State @ Florida State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Florida State · Conference game

NC State

3-3 · Power #61

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Florida State

3-4 · Power #40

projected

NCSU 27%

73% FSU

Spread

—

Total

—

model 60

Model line

FSU -8.5

FSU 73% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU WLLWL	2-4	33%	0-2	—
FSU WLWLW	3-3-1	50%	1-2-1	—

Venue/role: NCSU away; FSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3
FSU OUUOO	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
FSU	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ UNC	W42–19WO

Florida State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs FLA	L21–40LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NCSU 1–0 FSU NCSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NCSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 21 2025	Florida State 11 @ NC State 21	FSU -6.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+6.0 →+2.0▼ 4.0#62

FSU+11.5 →+7.3▼ 4.2#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NCSU

Longer bar = better

FSU

#52

Offense

Even

#49

#109

Defense

Even

#116

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

◀ NCSU better

−0.6 #114

71 plays #21

Pace

◀ NCSU faster

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #44	27.9 #107	NCSU
Yards / play	6.00 #58	6.34 #122	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #47	+0.25 #126	NCSU
Success rate	44% #58	44% #109	NCSU

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #56	27.7 #104	FSU
Yards / play	6.42 #39	6.06 #112	FSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #41	+0.21 #115	FSU
Success rate	44% #61	44% #106	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	9.8 #18	10.3 #45	20.2 #25	7.8 #31	5.0 #114	12.8 #79
FSU allowed	3.4 #39	9.7 #111	13.1 #83	4.4 #58	8.1 #112	12.6 #89

FSU scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	7.4 #44	9.3 #63	16.7 #54	7.4 #37	6.4 #81	13.9 #61
NCSU allowed	2.8 #19	5.7 #37	8.5 #30	9.3 #133	9.8 #131	19.2 #135

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.