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NCAAF · 2026 · Week 12

Oklahoma State @ Arizona State

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Arizona State · Conference game
Oklahoma State
4-2 · Power #44
30
projected
@
Arizona State
3-3 · Power #66
28
projected
OKST 58%
42% ASU
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 58
Model line
OKST -2.5
OKST 58% to win
Pick this game
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Oklahoma State 58%
Projected OKST 30 – ASU 28 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
OKST -2.5
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 58
How the model gets there (points from ASU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadASU rating edge−6.0+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.8=Model marginOKST by 2.7
TotalScoring ratings58.1=Model total58.1

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
OKST−8.9 →+6.1▲ 15.0#43
ASU+6.4 →+0.3▼ 6.1#70
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11
OKST
Longer bar = better
ASU
#27
Offense
◀ OKST better
#68
#73
Defense
◀ OKST better
#96
−0.7 #118
Turnovers
Even
−0.7 #116
72 plays #17
Pace
◀ OKST faster
68 plays #56
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When OKST has the ball
Advantage: OKST offense
OKST offASU defEdge
Points / game 37.2 #21 32.0 #121 OKST
Yards / play 7.24 #7 5.61 #84 OKST
PPA / play +0.16 #61 +0.13 #92 OKST
Success rate 49% #17 42% #85 OKST
When ASU has the ball
Even matchup
ASU offOKST defEdge
Points / game 31.3 #56 23.7 #68 Even
Yards / play 6.20 #51 5.32 #63 Even
PPA / play +0.05 #105 +0.10 #76 OKST
Success rate 44% #60 42% #86 ASU
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
OKST scoring against the ASU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
OKST scored
5.0
#91
10.8
#36
15.8
#62
11.0
#8
10.3
#11
21.3
#3
ASU allowed
8.7
#130
8.7
#96
17.3
#120
4.7
#67
10.0
#132
14.7
#117
ASU scoring against the OKST defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ASU scored
9.2
#22
9.0
#72
18.2
#40
9.2
#13
4.0
#123
13.2
#70
OKST allowed
6.3
#105
6.3
#56
12.7
#78
6.3
#94
4.7
#32
11.0
#68
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
ASU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
OKST7d
ASU7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 139 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Oklahoma State← vs TTU · vs KU →
Arizona State← @ UCF · @ ARIZ →
ESPN game page ↗
Other Week 12 gamesSame-conference games first
Other Week 12 gamesSame-conference games firstAll 66 ›
ISU @ UCF—BYU @ KU—TTU @ BAY—UTAH @ TCU—HOU @ WVU—ARIZ @ KSU—COLO @ CIN—BALL @ OHIO—EMU @ WMU—M-OH @ KENT—
All 66 Week 12 games ›