Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Kansas · Conference game
6-0 · Power #14
29
projected
@
2-4 · Power #46
22
projected
BYU 72%
28% KU
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 50.5
Model line
BYU -8
BYU 72% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
BYU 72%
Projected BYU 29 – KU 22 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
BYU -8
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 50.5
How the model gets there (points from KU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadKU rating edge−11.1+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.6=Model marginBYU by 8.0
TotalScoring ratings50.4=Model total50.4

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
BYU+10.7 →+15.4▲ 4.7#14
KU+3.1 →+5.3▲ 2.2#47
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BYU
Longer bar = better
KU
#23
Offense
◀ BYU better
#59
#18
Defense
◀ BYU better
#57
+0.5 #40
Turnovers
◀ BYU better
−0.5 #102
62 plays #114
Pace
KU faster ▶
70 plays #35
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When BYU has the ball
Advantage: BYU offense
BYU offKU defEdge
Points / game 33.5 #40 24.0 #74 BYU
Yards / play 6.79 #18 5.43 #70 BYU
PPA / play +0.30 #17 +0.04 #46 BYU
Success rate 50% #15 38% #38 BYU
When KU has the ball
Advantage: BYU defense
KU offBYU defEdge
Points / game 32.0 #50 15.2 #14 BYU
Yards / play 6.45 #36 4.42 #11 BYU
PPA / play +0.15 #72 −0.01 #27 BYU
Success rate 43% #78 35% #20 BYU

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
BYU scoring against the KU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
BYU scored
9.3
#19
12.2
#23
21.5
#16
6.3
#65
5.7
#103
12.0
#88
KU allowed
4.0
#46
6.5
#60
10.5
#49
5.7
#85
7.8
#103
13.5
#104
KU scoring against the BYU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
KU scored
4.3
#96
13.2
#14
17.5
#45
7.0
#43
7.5
#55
14.5
#49
BYU allowed
3.3
#35
4.0
#19
7.3
#16
2.2
#13
5.7
#57
7.8
#20

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
KU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
BYU7d
KU7d
Even
Tempo
Average 132 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week