Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Kansas · Conference game
BYU 72%28% KU
Spread
—
Total
—
model 50.5
Model line
BYU -8
BYU 72% to win
Pick this game
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Winner
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
BYU 72%
Projected BYU 29 – KU 22 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
BYU -8
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 50.5
How the model gets there (points from KU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadKU rating edge−11.1+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.6=Model marginBYU by 8.0
TotalScoring ratings50.4=Model total50.4
Signals
The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
No notable trends or market moves for this game.
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9-1 90% | 8-1 89% | 4-6 40% | |
| 3-7 30% | 3-6-1 33% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
BYU 0–2 KU
KU leads · 2 games since 2023 · KU has won the last 2 meetings
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16 2024 | Kansas 17 @ BYU 13 | BYU -2.5 | KU W |
| Sep 23 2023 | BYU 27 @ Kansas 38 | KU -9.5 | KU W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
BYU+10.7 →+15.4▲ 4.7#14
KU+3.1 →+5.3▲ 2.2#47
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11
Longer bar = better
#23
Offense
◀ BYU better#59
#18
Defense
◀ BYU better#57
+0.5 #40
Turnovers
◀ BYU better−0.5 #102
62 plays #114
Pace
KU faster ▶70 plays #35
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| BYU off | KU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 33.5 #40 | 24.0 #74 | BYU |
| Yards / play | 6.79 #18 | 5.43 #70 | BYU |
| PPA / play | +0.30 #17 | +0.04 #46 | BYU |
| Success rate | 50% #15 | 38% #38 | BYU |
| KU off | BYU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 32.0 #50 | 15.2 #14 | BYU |
| Yards / play | 6.45 #36 | 4.42 #11 | BYU |
| PPA / play | +0.15 #72 | −0.01 #27 | BYU |
| Success rate | 43% #78 | 35% #20 | BYU |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
BYU scoring against the KU defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9.3 #19 | 12.2 #23 | 21.5 #16 | 6.3 #65 | 5.7 #103 | 12.0 #88 | |
4.0 #46 | 6.5 #60 | 10.5 #49 | 5.7 #85 | 7.8 #103 | 13.5 #104 |
KU scoring against the BYU defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4.3 #96 | 13.2 #14 | 17.5 #45 | 7.0 #43 | 7.5 #55 | 14.5 #49 | |
3.3 #35 | 4.0 #19 | 7.3 #16 | 2.2 #13 | 5.7 #57 | 7.8 #20 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
BYU7d
KU7d
Even
Tempo
Average 132 plays
slowavg 133fast
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

