Texas Tech @ Baylor: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Baylor · Conference game

Texas Tech

6-0 · Power #15

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Baylor

4-2 · Power #38

projected

TTU 65%

35% BAY

Spread

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Total

—

model 53.5

Model line

TTU -5.5

TTU 65% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
BAY WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: TTU away; BAY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OOOUO	4-2	67%	6-0
BAY UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BAY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs TCU	L34–35WO

Baylor

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ HOU	L24–31LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TTU 1–1 BAY Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · BAY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Baylor 59 @ Texas Tech 35	TTU -4.5	BAY W
Oct 7 2023	Texas Tech 39 @ Baylor 14	BAY -1	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+19.6 →+14.7▼ 4.9#16

BAY+4.5 →+8.0▲ 3.5#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TTU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#35

Offense

◀ TTU better

#100

#30

Defense

BAY better ▶

#14

+0.5 #39

Turnovers

◀ TTU better

+0.2 #62

67 plays #62

Pace

BAY faster ▶

82 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	TTU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #16	14.7 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #45	4.59 #20	BAY
PPA / play	+0.19 #52	−0.07 #10	BAY
Success rate	48% #27	35% #15	Even

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	BAY off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #67	17.7 #27	TTU
Yards / play	5.33 #112	5.15 #53	TTU
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	−0.06 #11	TTU
Success rate	37% #128	37% #27	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	7.5 #43	11.2 #35	18.7 #38	7.7 #33	11.5 #5	19.2 #10
BAY allowed	4.3 #57	2.8 #7	7.2 #14	2.7 #24	4.8 #37	7.5 #18

BAY scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.3 #65	10.5 #42	16.8 #52	6.7 #55	6.5 #80	13.2 #71
TTU allowed	4.0 #46	5.7 #37	9.7 #44	4.0 #49	4.0 #18	8.0 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.