Baylor @ Houston: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Houston · Conference game

Baylor

4-2 · Power #38

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Houston

6-1 · Power #21

projected

BAY 29%

71% HOU

Spread

—

Total

—

model 56

Model line

HOU -7.5

HOU 71% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	—
HOU WLLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	—

Venue/role: BAY away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
HOU OOUUO	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
HOU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Baylor

No more games this season.

Houston

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BAY 1–2 HOU HOU leads · 3 games since 2023 · HOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Houston 31 @ Baylor 24	BAY -2.5	HOU W
Nov 23 2024	Baylor 20 @ Houston 10	BAY -6.5	BAY W
Nov 4 2023	Houston 25 @ Baylor 24	BAY -2	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+4.5 →+8.0▲ 3.5#38

HOU+3.9 →+12.7▲ 8.8#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BAY

Longer bar = better

HOU

#100

Offense

HOU better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ BAY better

#79

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.7 #23

82 plays #1

Pace

◀ BAY faster

71 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	BAY off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #67	21.0 #45	HOU
Yards / play	5.33 #112	5.83 #99	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.12 #87	Even
Success rate	37% #128	42% #83	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #13	14.7 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.86 #12	4.59 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #8	−0.07 #10	Even
Success rate	53% #2	35% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.3 #65	10.5 #42	16.8 #52	6.7 #55	6.5 #80	13.2 #71
HOU allowed	2.9 #23	4.4 #23	7.3 #15	7.6 #112	6.1 #65	13.7 #108

HOU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	10.7 #14	10.4 #43	21.1 #19	11.4 #4	6.7 #73	18.1 #16
BAY allowed	4.3 #57	2.8 #7	7.2 #14	2.7 #24	4.8 #37	7.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.