Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game
2-4 · Power #46
27
projected
@
4-2 · Power #44
31
projected
KU 40%
60% OKST
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 58.5
Model line
OKST -3.5
OKST 60% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Oklahoma State 60%
Projected KU 27 – OKST 31 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
OKST -3.5
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 58.5
How the model gets there (points from OKST’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadOKST rating edge+1.1+Home field+2.5=Model marginOKST by 3.6
TotalScoring ratings58.4=Model total58.4

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
KU+3.1 →+5.3▲ 2.2#47
OKST−8.9 →+6.1▲ 15.0#43
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

KU
Longer bar = better
OKST
#59
Offense
OKST better ▶
#27
#57
Defense
◀ KU better
#73
−0.5 #102
Turnovers
◀ KU better
−0.7 #118
70 plays #36
Pace
OKST faster ▶
72 plays #17
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When KU has the ball
Even matchup
KU offOKST defEdge
Points / game 32.0 #50 23.7 #68 Even
Yards / play 6.45 #36 5.32 #63 KU
PPA / play +0.15 #72 +0.10 #76 Even
Success rate 43% #78 42% #86 Even
When OKST has the ball
Advantage: OKST offense
OKST offKU defEdge
Points / game 37.2 #21 24.0 #73 OKST
Yards / play 7.24 #7 5.43 #70 OKST
PPA / play +0.16 #61 +0.04 #46 Even
Success rate 49% #17 38% #38 OKST

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
KU scoring against the OKST defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
KU scored
4.3
#96
13.2
#14
17.5
#45
7.0
#43
7.5
#56
14.5
#49
OKST allowed
6.3
#105
6.3
#56
12.7
#77
6.3
#93
4.7
#34
11.0
#68
OKST scoring against the KU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
OKST scored
5.0
#91
10.8
#37
15.8
#65
11.0
#8
10.3
#11
21.3
#3
KU allowed
4.0
#46
6.5
#60
10.5
#48
5.7
#84
7.8
#103
13.5
#104

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
OKST +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
KU7d
OKST7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 141 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.