Arizona State @ Arizona: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Arizona · Conference game

Arizona State

3-3 · Power #66

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Arizona

5-1 · Power #31

projected

ASU 33%

67% ARIZ

Spread

ARIZ -4.5

Total

52.5

model 54.5

Spread edge

ARIZ by 8.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentARIZ -4.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowARIZ -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now52.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (255 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentARIZ -4.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 4.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 4.1; 60.1 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–20	L	U56.5
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	32–38	L	O53.5
Very close	ARMY vs UTSA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	29–24	L	P53
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	45–42	P	O53.5
Very close	PITT vs NCSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	53–34	W	O52.5
Very close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	44–13	W	O51.5
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	PITT vs UNC 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–21	L	U47.5
Very close	USF vs TEM 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	13–17	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LWLLL	2-4	33%	0-2	0-2
ARIZ LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OUOUO	4-2	67%	3-3
ARIZ UOOUO	3-3	50%	5-1

In 1566 games with totals 48.5–56.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
ARIZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arizona State

No more games this season.

Arizona

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ASU 45–43 ARIZ (1 tied) ASU leads · 89 games since 1931 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 28 2025	Arizona 23 @ Arizona State 7	ARIZ -2.5	ARIZ W
Nov 30 2024	Arizona State 49 @ Arizona 7	ASU -7.5	ASU W
Nov 25 2023	Arizona 59 @ Arizona State 23	ARIZ -13.5	ARIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+6.4 →+0.3▼ 6.1#70

ARIZ+8.6 →+9.8▲ 1.2#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ASU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#68

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#19

#96

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#24

−0.7 #116

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #109

68 plays #56

Pace

Even

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	ASU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #56	19.0 #32	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.20 #51	4.87 #28	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	−0.04 #16	ARIZ
Success rate	44% #60	36% #21	ARIZ

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #30	32.0 #121	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.83 #14	5.61 #84	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.27 #20	+0.13 #92	ARIZ
Success rate	50% #11	42% #85	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	9.2 #22	9.0 #72	18.2 #40	9.2 #13	4.0 #123	13.2 #70
ARIZ allowed	5.7 #89	4.0 #19	9.7 #44	2.3 #19	7.0 #89	9.3 #41

ARIZ scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	8.7 #30	10.3 #44	19.0 #33	8.2 #24	8.5 #41	16.7 #26
ASU allowed	8.7 #130	8.7 #96	17.3 #120	4.7 #67	10.0 #132	14.7 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.