North Carolina @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

2-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

5-0 · Power #39

final

Closing spread

PITT -3.5

✓ UNC W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 22–27 PITT

✗ PITT (64%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -4.5

ClosePITT -3.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -4.5

1 → UNC

ClosePITT -3.5

1 pt toward North Carolina

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -4.5 · closed PITT -3.5 · moved 1 toward UNCmodel PITT -11

model PITT -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (358 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (376 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -4.5

ClosePITT -3.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 3.5-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 21–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 4.5; 52.2 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB vs NU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	28–21	P	O44.5
Very close	VAN vs AUB 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	45–38	W	O46.5
Very close	UVA vs WAKE 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	9–16	L	U48.5
Very close	BC vs MSU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–19	L	U45.5
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	44–13	W	O51.5
Close	BYU vs KU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	13–17	L	U55.5
Close	IOWA vs NEB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	13–10	P	U41.5
Close	UNLV vs FRES 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	59–14	W	O50.5
Close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	2-1
PITT WLWWW	4-1	80%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2
PITT OUUUO	2-3	40%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PITT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNC 13–6 PITT UNC leads · 19 games since 1974 · UNC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Pittsburgh 34 @ North Carolina 24	PITT -2.5	PITT W
Sep 23 2023	North Carolina 41 @ Pittsburgh 24	UNC -7	UNC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC−2.1 →+2.6▲ 4.7#57

PITT+6.4 →+10.3▲ 3.9#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UNC

Longer bar = better

PITT

#72

Offense

PITT better ▶

#45

#65

Defense

PITT better ▶

#22

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

PITT better ▶

+1.0 #22

58 plays #132

Pace

PITT faster ▶

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	UNC off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #101	13.4 #14	PITT
Yards / play	6.01 #69	4.81 #39	PITT
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	−0.04 #28	PITT
Success rate	47% #38	33% #7	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	38.4 #25	19.5 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.81 #22	5.08 #57	PITT
PPA / play	+0.22 #48	+0.06 #59	Even
Success rate	43% #83	44% #101	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	9.5 #31	6.5 #107	16.0 #67	5.8 #81	2.3 #135	8.0 #126
PITT allowed	2.8 #25	6.8 #62	9.6 #49	0.0 #1	3.8 #27	3.8 #2

PITT scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	10.4 #18	12.8 #27	23.2 #15	8.4 #34	6.8 #75	15.2 #52
UNC allowed	6.8 #105	2.5 #10	9.3 #41	3.8 #49	6.5 #81	10.3 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.