Notre Dame @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at North Carolina

Weather at kickoff73°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

4-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

2-1 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

ND -21

✓ UNC W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 34–12 UNC

✓ ND (94%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -24.5

CloseND -21

Total55.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -24.5

3.5 → UNC

CloseND -21

3.5 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open55.5

▼ 9

Close46.5

Down 9 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -24.5 · closed ND -21 · moved 3.5 toward UNCmodel ND -25

model ND -25

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (77 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -24.5

CloseND -21

Total55.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like ND as a 21-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 37–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 63 points went over 46.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 25.3; 60 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	FSU @ BC 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-25.25	31–29	L	O47.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	3-1
UNC WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; UNC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OUUO	2-2	50%	4-0
UNC UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 575 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UNC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ND 22–2 UNC ND leads · 24 games since 1949 · ND has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+24.9 →+26.5▲ 1.6#1

UNC−2.1 →+1.7▲ 3.8#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

UNC

#17

Offense

◀ ND better

#69

Defense

◀ ND better

#36

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ ND better

+0.3 #53

63 plays #101

Pace

◀ ND faster

60 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	42.3 #16	13.7 #20	Even
Yards / play	6.64 #34	4.59 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #10	−0.03 #31	ND
Success rate	54% #6	39% #61	ND

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	UNC off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #102	8.3 #2	ND
Yards / play	6.13 #66	3.62 #2	ND
PPA / play	+0.12 #84	−0.19 #3	ND
Success rate	50% #22	31% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ND scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	12.0 #15	14.8 #16	26.8 #10	6.8 #64	8.8 #37	15.5 #47
UNC allowed	4.3 #76	1.0 #4	5.3 #10	3.0 #40	5.3 #65	8.3 #44

UNC scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	10.3 #27	6.3 #108	16.7 #74	5.7 #82	1.0 #137	6.7 #133
ND allowed	0.8 #4	4.3 #24	5.0 #7	1.5 #14	1.8 #4	3.3 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.