Notre Dame @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Purdue

Weather at kickoff71°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

3-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

1-2 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

ND -27.5

✓ ND W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 44–16 PUR

✓ ND (98%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -27.5

CloseND -27.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -27.5

no move

CloseND -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -27.5 · unchangedmodel ND -29

model ND -29

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -27.5

CloseND -27.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 27.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 49–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.6 against an average line of 27.1; 60.4 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE @ STAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	42–6	W	U61
Close	UGA @ GT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-24.5	31–23	L	U59.5
Close	OSU @ PUR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-29.5	34–10	L	U49.5
Close	OU @ TLSA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-28	66–17	W	O58.75
Close	IU @ PUR 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-28.5	56–3	W	O54.5
Close	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Loose	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-27	41–13	W	O46
Loose	UGA @ VAN 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-32.5	37–20	L	O55
Loose	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · loose	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Loose	ALA @ VAN 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-23	35–40	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WWL	2-1	67%	—	2-1
PUR LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
PUR OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 562 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
PUR	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ND 2–0 PUR ND leads · 2 games since 2023 · ND has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2025	Purdue 30 @ Notre Dame 56	ND -24.5	ND W
Sep 14 2024	Notre Dame 66 @ Purdue 7	ND -7.5	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+24.9 →+25.5▲ 0.6#1

PUR−1.8 →−2.9▼ 1.1#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

PUR

#32

Offense

Even

#28

Defense

◀ ND better

#130

+2.7 #2

Turnovers

◀ ND better

−0.7 #110

64 plays #90

Pace

PUR faster ▶

72 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #27	36.3 #128	ND
Yards / play	6.34 #62	6.91 #129	ND
PPA / play	+0.34 #19	+0.35 #134	ND
Success rate	52% #19	48% #128	ND

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	PUR off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #34	7.7 #4	ND
Yards / play	6.82 #29	3.81 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #14	−0.22 #3	Even
Success rate	49% #34	29% #8	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

ND scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	13.7 #9	10.3 #55	24.0 #23	9.0 #37	7.0 #70	16.0 #45
PUR allowed	10.3 #128	5.3 #46	15.7 #105	5.7 #86	10.0 #121	15.7 #115

PUR scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	8.0 #48	7.7 #92	15.7 #80	11.3 #14	8.0 #51	19.3 #23
ND allowed	1.0 #9	5.7 #50	6.7 #30	1.0 #10	0.0 #1	1.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.