UCLA @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 1:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UCLA

3-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

2-1 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

UCLA -2.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 28–26 MD

✓ UCLA (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCLA -1.5

CloseUCLA -2.5

Total51.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -1.5

1 → UCLA

CloseUCLA -2.5

1 pt toward UCLA

Total

Open51.5

▲ 4

Close55.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -1.5 · closed UCLA -2.5 · moved 1 toward UCLAmodel MD -3

model MD -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (263 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (317 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCLA -1.5

CloseUCLA -2.5

Total51.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 2.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 54–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 55.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.8 against an average line of 3.3; 50.6 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GT @ SYR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–31	L	U60.5
Close	UTAH @ BYU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	21–24	L	U49.5
Close	ISU @ WVU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–16	W	U54
Close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Close	BYU @ CIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	26–14	W	U56.5
Close	UTAH @ OKST 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	22–19	W	U53.5
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	MICH @ NEB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	30–27	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0
MD WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: UCLA away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
MD OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 642 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MD	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UCLA 1–0 MD UCLA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UCLA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Maryland 17 @ UCLA 20	UCLA -4.5	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.1 →+8.1▲ 6.0#35

MD+0.7 →+7.0▲ 6.3#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UCLA

Longer bar = better

#18

Offense

Even

#25

#66

Defense

Even

#53

+1.7 #11

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #16

67 plays #69

Pace

MD faster ▶

74 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	41.7 #24	16.3 #35	Even
Yards / play	7.36 #16	4.25 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #16	+0.10 #86	UCLA
Success rate	52% #15	40% #70	UCLA

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #23	24.0 #86	MD
Yards / play	6.99 #26	5.38 #84	MD
PPA / play	+0.31 #26	+0.02 #53	MD
Success rate	51% #23	37% #41	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	9.3 #34	6.7 #100	16.0 #76	7.0 #55	18.7 #1	25.7 #2
MD allowed	4.7 #70	6.7 #64	11.3 #67	5.0 #80	0.0 #1	5.0 #15

MD scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	8.0 #49	13.7 #30	21.7 #36	11.7 #12	8.7 #44	20.3 #19
UCLA allowed	4.7 #70	8.0 #84	12.7 #83	5.7 #86	5.7 #65	11.3 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.