Maryland @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Maryland

4-2 · Power #72

final

Final

UCLA

2-4 · Power #70

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -4.5

✓ MD W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 23–26 UCLA

✓ UCLA (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -3.5

CloseUCLA -4.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -3.5

1 → UCLA

CloseUCLA -4.5

1 pt toward UCLA

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -3.5 · closed UCLA -4.5 · moved 1 toward UCLAmodel MD -0.5

model MD -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (183 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (205 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -3.5

CloseUCLA -4.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 4.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UCLA won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 3.8; 48.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	19–29	L	U51.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Very close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	BC vs PITT 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–23	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-0	3-0
UCLA LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD UOUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
UCLA UUUOU	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UCLA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+2.1 →+4.7▲ 2.6#50

UCLA+5.3 →0.0▼ 5.3#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#78

Offense

Even

#69

#17

Defense

◀ MD better

#116

+1.7 #1

Turnovers

◀ MD better

0.0 #79

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ MD faster

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #57	29.2 #106	MD
Yards / play	5.20 #105	5.94 #108	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	+0.19 #113	MD
Success rate	42% #82	51% #137	MD

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	UCLA off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #103	16.8 #17	MD
Yards / play	5.64 #79	4.73 #26	MD
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	−0.12 #5	MD
Success rate	46% #37	36% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MD scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	7.3 #48	13.8 #4	21.2 #18	6.2 #65	2.8 #131	9.0 #117
UCLA allowed	7.8 #116	7.3 #76	15.2 #99	3.5 #36	10.5 #133	14.0 #103

UCLA scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.3 #123	8.5 #78	11.8 #103	6.7 #60	4.3 #114	11.0 #95
MD allowed	2.3 #18	3.3 #9	5.7 #8	3.2 #25	8.0 #106	11.2 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.