Penn State @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Penn State

3-3 · Power #17

final

Final

Iowa

4-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -3.5

✓ PSU W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 21–25 IOWA

✓ IOWA (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -3.5

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total38.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -3.5

no move

CloseIOWA -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open38.5

▲ 3

Close41.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -3.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -1.5

model IOWA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (257 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -3.5

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total38.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 3.5-point home favorite against PSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 25–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 3.2; 45.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WISC vs MINN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–23	L	O37
Close	IOWA vs WASH 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	40–16	W	O41.5
Close	HOU vs COLO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-4	36–20	W	O45.5
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	RUTG vs WIS 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.25	7–42	L	O43.5
Close	IOWA vs NEB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3	13–10	P	U41.5
Close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Close	ISU vs IOWA 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–13	P	U43.25
Close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	42–24	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-1	—
IOWA WWWWW	5-1	83%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: PSU away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3
IOWA UOOUU	2-4	33%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 199 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
IOWA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PSU 1–0 IOWA PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Iowa 0 @ Penn State 31	PSU -14	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+20.4 →+12.2▼ 8.2#24

IOWA+7.8 →+10.7▲ 2.9#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

PSU

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#42

Offense

◀ PSU better

#72

#33

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#17

+0.5 #46

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

+0.2 #63

62 plays #122

Pace

IOWA faster ▶

65 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	PSU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #31	13.0 #8	IOWA
Yards / play	5.97 #55	4.33 #14	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.18 #50	−0.05 #17	IOWA
Success rate	47% #31	38% #29	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	IOWA off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #54	18.5 #27	PSU
Yards / play	5.03 #115	4.42 #15	PSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #77	+0.01 #33	PSU
Success rate	46% #41	41% #55	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.2 #88	8.5 #78	13.7 #87	7.7 #46	13.2 #2	20.8 #4
IOWA allowed	4.5 #59	5.2 #25	9.7 #36	0.0 #1	3.3 #13	3.3 #1

IOWA scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	9.5 #17	9.0 #68	18.5 #37	4.5 #97	7.7 #56	12.2 #80
PSU allowed	2.2 #13	5.5 #33	7.7 #17	2.3 #15	6.3 #61	8.7 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.